Go to the poll. Vote bravely.
By Kim Quek
01.05.2013
Pakatan Rakyat (Pakatan) looks every bit the winner in the coming election on May 5.
This is evident from the spontaneous and overwhelming outpouring of support demonstrated by audiences in rallies and forums conducted by Pakatan all over the country. In contrast, Barisan Nasional (BN) rallies are sparsely attended by listless audiences; and where there are bigger crowds, these are orchestrated with material inducement and obligatory attendance.
This contrast of popular support is evident in all urban centres and most rural areas.
That Pakatan is more popular is verified in an opinion poll conducted in the Peninsula by University of Malaya's democratic and election centre (Umcedel) during the period from dissolution of parliament on April 3 to nomination day on April 20. The poll shows more voters prefer Pakatan's leader Anwar Ibahim to BN's caretaker prime minister Najib Rajak as prime minister (43% vs 39%) ; and it also shows a greater preference for Pakatan's manifesto.
In fact, this poll result showing Anwar leading is an understatement, as similar polls in the past always show the incumbent power's support level much higher than it actually enjoys, due to inhibition by interviewees to reveal their dissent, which is a common characteristics of opinion polls in all repressive countries including Malaysia. An example is the poll taken by independent pollster Merdeka Centre for the 2008 election in the Peninsula from Mar 5th to Mar 7th, which is the eve of polling day (Mar 8th). While 66% of those poll expressed satisfaction with the status quo, only 49% actually cast their votes for BN in the Peninsula (51%, if Sabah and Sarawak are included). There was a credibility gap of 17% in favour of BN. I believe similar gap persists in current polls, though with varying magnitude.
Opinion polls taken in recent months also show a steady decline of support for BN as well as for PM Najib, which trend is a repeat of the phenomenon in 2008. If the latter holds true, we should expect a further plunge of electoral support for BN in the closing days of the election.
PAKATAN'S POPULARITY SURGES
There is a simple explanation for this phenomenon. Malaysia's mass media, save the Internet, is tightly controlled and used by BN as political propaganda tool to do only self praise and to slander the opposition - all year round. The opposition has no access whatsoever to these media, not even during election period. Needless to say, incessant scandals of high corruption and abuse of power committed by BN are routinely and effectively swept under the carpet - for most people.
However, during the election campaign period when more than 500 rallies a day are held all over the country, such embargo of bad news (for BN) is broken, as opposition leaders relentlessly expose and highlight the sins and excesses of the BN regime committed over the years. These dirty BN linens are then contrasted with the corruption-free and sound governance found in the Pakatan-administered states.
Such a quick course of political education for the public helps to bring out a more balanced perspective of the true political picture of the country, in particular, the merits and demerits of the two contenders competing for the mandate to manage the country for the next five years.
Under the circumstances, it is only logical that public opinion has shifted, and will continue to shift in favour of Pakatan Rakyat as election campaign progresses.
How could it be otherwise when BN has wasted the past five years and the country's enormous resources on propaganda trumpeting phony reforms, while the decadence of the regime has gone from bad to worse in every aspect?
REGRESSION IN ALL FRONTS
Starting from the current election, it is sad that the campaigns have been marred by an unprecedented rise of the culture of violence and slander perpetrated mainly by BN, with impunity from the law enforcers; while the scandal-ridden and politically partisan Election Commission (EC) has not only failed to carry out any meaningful reform, but has worsened the unleveled playing field by infusing even more phantom voters into the electoral roll.
On the political front, the nation is more polarised than ever, as the extremist faction in Umno has been diligently spewing racial and religious poison to fan primordial fervor so as to strengthen Umno's racist vote bank.
Economically, PM Najib has brought the nation to a financial precipice by splurging irresponsibly and doubling public debt during his premiership to reach its statutory limit, without bringing commensurate economic benefit. Our economy continues to mire in the what the World Bank frequently refers to as our "middle income trap", with corruption and cronyism raging unabated.
That Umno has no political will to institute any reform is demonstrated in the failure to resolve to fruition, numerous long standing mega scandals of criminal acts committed by BN leaders, such as:
l World famous timber baron, the Chief Minister of Sarawak Taib Mahmud's multi-billion timber and land corruption scandal. The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) remains mum on this case despite having received a mountain of documentary evidence of such crime over the past years.
l Sabah Chief Minister Musa Aman's timber corruption scandal, highlighted by his money laundering agent Michael Chia being caught red-handed with RM40 million worth of currency at the Hong Kong International airport.
l Sabah's "Project M" (M stands for Mahathir) - a clandestine project masterminded by Mahathir that has altered the Sabah demography to enable Umno to achieve political hegemony through illegal granting of hundreds of thousands of citizenship and voting rights to Muslim immigrants. No culprit has been nailed for this high treason and sell-out of Sabahans' sovereignty.
l The RM12.5 billion Port Klang Free Zone (PKFZ) corruption scandal where BN leaders ripped off hundreds of million of ringgit of public funds. No culprit has been properly charged and convicted.
l The National Feedlot Corporation (NFC) scandal where then Women's Minister Shahrizat Jalil's family squandered a RM250million soft loan without fulfilling its contractual obligations.
l The Altantuya murder with alleged link to PM Najib in the corruption-ridden, multi-billion Scorpene submarine purchase. The true culprits remain at large, after going through years of dubious investigation and compromised court trial.
l Justice has not been given to the late Teoh Beng Hock who died 4 years ago in the hands of MACC, despite PM Najib's vow at the outset to accord justice to Teoh's family, and despite going through a death inquest and a royal commission of inquiry.
It will be seen from these high profile failure of the BN regime and numerous other unresolved BN scandals that the rule of law has broken down, and the rotten BN ship is beyond repair.
Despite the clamp down of news in the BN-controlled media, bits and pieces of these scandals have filtered down to the masses from time to time through the Internet; and coupled with the intensive publicity given to these crimes during this time of election fever, public awareness of the true picture is heightened.
The consequential public disillusion and anger will inevitably translate into votes on polling day. It is anticipated that BN's share of popular votes will plunge substantially below 50%. Such a reduction of votes for BN should see Pakatan winning the poll with a simple majority.
BN'S DAYS ARE NUMBERED
However, in the event that BN scrapes through with a thin majority due to gerrymandering and strategic infusion of phantom voters, the battered BN will not survive for long.
It is the consensus of honest analysts and observers that Umno's partners MCA (a ‘Chinese only’ party), Gerakan and MIC (an ‘Indians only’ party) are destined for virtual annihilation come polling day, as they have long lost the support of their respective communities.
Umno (a ‘Malays only’ party) will then be completely isolated in the Peninsula, having lost its other communal partners which purport to represent the Chinese and Indian communities respectively. The BN structure will then be a lone ranger communal party Umno in West Malaysia, partnered by fringe political parties in the East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak representing the various races there.
Can such a BN coalition command the confidence and trust of West Malaysians? Is such a BN rule tenable and sustainable economically and politically over the longer period?
The answer is an emphatic no. No investor of substance, whether local or foreign, would consider pumping his millions for long term investment into the country henceforth. The Malaysian economy,which has been suffering from a drought of private investment since the Asian fianacial crisis in the late nineties, and further hampered by increasing net FDI outflow in recent years, will shrivel in no time, bringing catastrophe to the country.
In such a scenario, the crippled coalition of communal parties known as BN will not survive the first session of parliament due to anticipated mass defection from the sinking ship.
The days of BN is virtually numbered, and Malaysian voters who have decided to dumb BN should take heart that they will not have to face a surviving and vindictive BN government delivering its vengeful blows.
Go to the poll. Vote bravely. A brighter Malaysia is awaiting us all.
Kim Quek.
DESIDERATA: I took a respite from politics and GE13 writHes/rites by detouring to the TIME WHEN I WAS SMALL, and RAMBUTAN TREES WERE TALL, wit' Labour Day camaraderie apologies to the Bee Gees forever etching on my mind FIRST OF MAY. Do you myYOUNGfriends, remember what does S.W.A.L.K stand for?
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Another mGf I fondly call DPP aka ES Shankar -- is his ancestry traceable to the great SITAR maestro? whose daughter, if you don't no, is Norah Jones...:) -- has another GE13 message: WHY YOU MUST VOTE FOR A CHANGE IN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT seated at PUTRAJAYA......AND YL CHONG, Desiderata, sokong DonPlayPuks 'hole-hardedly:)~~~~~~~~
28/04/2013
1MDB - A RM20 BILLION FINANCIAL MELTDOWN FIASCO WAITING TO HAPPEN? WHY YOU SHOULD VOTE PAKATAN IN & NAJIB & BUMNO/BN OUT, OUT, OUT TO OBLIVION!
by bernie madhoff, Donplaypuks® intrepid genius financial correspondent for $20 billion james bond affairs
Malaysians have plenty to worry about 1MDB's bond issues totalling some RM20 billion to-date, 100% guaranteed by you and me through sovereign gurantees so generously approved by PM Najib. According to KiniBiz (CLICK HERE), there are allegations that 1MDB's secretive and over-the-odds ways of pricing bonds and raising funds and investing may well be laying the foundation for a giant ponzi scheme sting.
Originally, 1MDB was called TIA (Terengganu Investment Authority). The Federal Government was supposed to pay TIA the royalties due from Petronas to Terengganu, to be invested in a sovereign fund, for the benefit of its people. Najib then hijacked the idea, cancelled TIA and created 1MDB, a Federal entity under his control, now supposedly a sovereign fund for the benefit of all Malaysians.
This of course completely ignored and bypassed Khazanah, the Government's investment arm, since that's exactly what it is supposed to do - invest Taxpayer's money in viable projects for the benefit of all Malaysians. But then cunning, thief-minded and serially lying Najib did not wish for TIA, with its billions of ringgit, to be managed at State level in a transparent and accountable manner. Our former Agong and King of Terengganu had already as far back as 2008 shown his independent mind by refusing to accept UMNO's preferred candidate for the post of Menteri Besar (Chief Minister). By moving it to Federal level, Najib could manipulate the funds in total secrecy without worrying about Terengganu and Royal whistleblowers.
When IMDB's CEO, Directors, "Advisors" and Trustess (one of whom is PM Najib) all bleat the same tune - that the accounts have been audited by an international firm, and filed in accordance with company law - we have much to worry about. Not only because these accounts filed with the ROC (Registrar of Companies) are in the abbreviated form. Such accounts do not tell us who the bonds were issued to at fanciful discounts and interest rates, why funds were raised overseas at interest rates way above international norms or why foreign countries are issuing default guarantees and at what reward to them. These audited accounts cannot explain why 1MDB paid over the odd premiums (billions of ringgit) to acquire IPP's (Independent Power Producers) owned by UMNO-linked cronies and that are due to expire in a few years,when by holding out they could have it for a song!
Most importantly, it does not tells us if 1MDB was forced to appoint a certain local bank controlled by the brother of a prime minister, with exclusive rights to its bond issues. Tellingly also, 1MDB's detailed audited accounts are not posted at its website at http://www.1mdb.com.my/.
Consider that PKFZ was also audited by reputable audit firms; yet today our Government is staring at the possibility of a total bailout bill of RM12.4 billion, having already forked out RM4 billion to save blunders and crony and crooked dealings by UMNO and MCA at Ministerial and Cabinet level, and fraud at corporate level.
Remember too that when the sub-prime and CDO crises hit the United States of America in 2008, necessitating a US$700 BILLION bailout of Wall St. and banks, the CEO's of Lehmann Brothers, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merril Lynch, AIG, Citibank, Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac etc, ALL, without fail, also claimed their accounts had been audited by the "Big Four" and filed in full compliance of all laws. But in USA Congressional and Senate hearings, evidence of massive fraud and financial mismanagement surfaced. All the CEOs had to offer, while lying blatantly with a poker face, is that they had been sincere in their dealings and decisions i.e. $700 billion dollars of it. If sincerity were gold, there would be another Klondike-like stampede among the "financial experts" in USA and Europe to trade and gamble on it, while blaming China if they lost money.
Here is another huge reason to worry about. Najib and 1MDB are courting the same "financial experts" in their clandestine wheelings and dealings. Thieves of a feather, surely flock together? And who is PM Najib most relying on - Goldman Sachs whose CEO Lloyd Blankfein, at the height of the USA CDO crisis, saw no conflict of interest in speedily short-selling the very shares he was urging his clients to buy at huge premiums!
And the sure kiss of death? Our PAC (Public Accounts Committee) pronounced that "1MDB acounts are healthy and in order". CLICK HERE. This is the PAC also under the chairmanship of Datuk Seri Azmi Khalid which determined that there was no hanky-panky in the RM8 billion Scorpene Submarine purchases contracts despite the gruesome murder of Mongolian Altantuya. CLICK HERE. The PAC also found nothing wrong in defence purchase of MIG fighter aircrafts totalling over $2 billion, where some $300 million of commissions were diverted by a procurement agent and ex-thief Minister of Melaka, to a fake off-shore company to deceive his partners!
The simple balance sheet facts about 1MDB are as follows:
1. Paid Up Capital - RM1 million
2. Total Bonds issued to-date - RM20 Billion
3. Total Investments and Cash/Profits - RM20 billion
From this, it is clear that:
1. The money that Petronas/Najib promised TIA, some RM2-4 billion a year, has not been paid into 1MDB's bank account. Where has it all disappeared to? What on earth is Najib doing, allowing 1MDB to gear up at the rate of 20,000 times its paid up capital of RM1 million?
2. Why were all these bonds issued overseas? Surely, with 6% annual bond interest, Najib could have created a 1M Trust Sovereign Fund exclusively for Malaysians to invest in. Which Malaysian would not want to invest in such a fund, out of sheer patriotism? After all, not even the EPF pays 6% interest to its shareholders. More worryingly, Indonesia's central bank sold 10 and 30-year US$ denominated bonds 3 weeks ago with a yield of 3.5%. What on earth was 1MDB doing floating 6% bonds, and that at a discount of 20%?
3. Why raise funds in US$ overseas for ringgit denominated investments and development projects in Malaysia, such as the RM26 billion TRX (Tun Razak Exchange) and the 196-hectare Bandar Malaysia mixed -development real estate development?
4. With bond interest averaging 6%, 1MDB will have to generate at the bare minimum, about RM1.2 billion a year to service debt. What is 1MDB's projected income and profit over the next 20 years, to justify debt vs minimum acceptable returns of 10% on its investments? IMDB's CEO is of course playing around with semantics by claiming it has no loans. A rose by any other name, smells the same. Call it bond or loans, it is ALL DEBT which is guaranteed 100% now by us, the Taxpayer.
5. By signing up with indecent haste the old and expiring IPP's, Najib has seemingly tied the hands of the incoming Pakatan Government (yes, I predict Pakatan will win GE 13 by a huge majority). With 55% electricity reserves, we do not need old or new IPP's. Since all IPP's require a guaranteed power purchasing contract with Tenaga to operate, once again Tenaga will be robbed blind to the tune of RM 15-20 billion a year purchasing electricity from IPP's it does not and will not need! But Najib, in his vindictive crony oriented endeavours, forgets that such transactions can be reversed if they are not in the public interest, fraud is proved or inducements (illegal commissions and bribes) paid to certain parties to bulldoze through the acquisitions.
6. Questions have also been posed to the CEO and Board of Directors of 1MDB if the off-shore incorporated PetroSaudi Corporation is the real McCoy, or as in the case of MIG fighter planes and ex-Thief Minister of Melaka, a fake entity created and headed by nominees, for the benefit of UMNO and its cronies.
7. It should worry everyone that among 1MDB's "advisors" is Nor Mohd Yakcop, now chief of the EPU (Economic Plundering Unit) under PM Najib's control. Nor Mohamed was the man who was sacked in the early '90's as chief forex trader of BNM (Bank Negara Malaysia) for creating losses said to be ranging anywhere from RM6 billion to RM30 billion!! With then PM Mahathir's connivance, the losses were originally illegally hidden in the accounts by netting off against revaluation surpluses from gold and other assets. The scandal only came to light when Lim Kit Siang of DAP (Democratic Action Party) astutely discovered the huge hole in BNM's balance sheet and forced Mahathir to admit the fiasco in Parliament. One may well ask what Nor Mohamed is doing back in Government, especially since no RCI (Royal Commission of Inquiry) has been held to determine if massive fraud was involved in a case which nearly wiped out all of Malaysia's reserves!!
8. We should nor forget how Sime Darby had to write-off over RM4 billion in its power & energy forays in Saudi and the Middle East. All the JV contracts were one-sided and drafted in Arabic which were badly translated, and proper due diligence was sacrificed to satisfy "more speed, less haste national service" calls by Badawi and Najib. Sime lost its case in the Saudi courts. Something like this is likely to surface if any of 1MDB's overseas investments in JV with PetroSaudi, Abu Dhabi or Qatar goes sour. Najib is bending so low in courting the Arabs as to shamelessly expose his total nakedness.
8. We should nor forget how Sime Darby had to write-off over RM4 billion in its power & energy forays in Saudi and the Middle East. All the JV contracts were one-sided and drafted in Arabic which were badly translated, and proper due diligence was sacrificed to satisfy "more speed, less haste national service" calls by Badawi and Najib. Sime lost its case in the Saudi courts. Something like this is likely to surface if any of 1MDB's overseas investments in JV with PetroSaudi, Abu Dhabi or Qatar goes sour. Najib is bending so low in courting the Arabs as to shamelessly expose his total nakedness.
There are literally hundreds of questions that worried finanial analysts and Malaysians would like the answers to vis-a-vis 1MDB and its furtive operations. By stonewalling and hiding behind carefully worded PRspeak and civil service/civil serpent mentality waffle, 1MDB is not endearing itself to us. They can tell us (their 100% funders and owners) the truth, nicely and voluntarily, in a forthright manner, or be prepared to be dragged off in chains later (as soon as next month) and forcibly be made to talk! Are you with the Government of Thieves, or with the Rakyat? The choice is your, 1MDB!
Donplaypuks® with our RM20 billion, man!
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