My Anthem

Friday, August 07, 2015

ECONOMIC FACTORS that will feed the PERFECT STORM FORMATION: UPDATED

(FIRST post APPeared on WEDnesday 5 AUgust, 2015: NOTE FROM YL,DESi)

LET me just state this is a collation of events in the recent weeks, the figures cited ARE JUST CLOSE APPROXIMATIONS WHICH ARE good for making TRENDING PREDICTONS.

Writers/writHERs are not soothsayers though one BLOGger exiled to the UK resident in (Woe)MANchester oftense with LOGICAL arguments to support his CONCLUSIONS>making sen pushes his predictions down the readers' throats the past few years, WITH DIDACTIC PREACHINGS AND QUANTUM LEAP OF LOGIC TO make INFERENCES LIKE telling stories from the Arabian 1,001 nights... BEFORE these "Past few years", he was making sense with his WRITES with good background and LOGICAL PROGRESSION BEFore laying out his CONCLUSIONS. I am writing this BECAUSE HE sold out the REformasi CAUse and PKR Leader DS ANWAR IBRAHIM, and I deem him just a fiction writer nowadays, so be FOREWARNED SHOULD you still read his stuff, OK, from UK! KO him from your reading list when surfing, OK!

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NOW I Will list some BULLET POINTS Of the key economic factors that will IMPACT THE formation of the PERFECT STORM NOW forming in the near horizon.

*1.    THE Malaysian RINGGIT became the WORST PERFORMING CURRENCY Versus the GREENBACK or AMerican DOllar since a few weeks back, even beating the INdonesian RUpiah for the HOnour/DISHOnour. THE MAlaysian RInggit breached the RM3.80=1USD, last fixed 17 years ago by THEN PM DR MAHATHIR MOHAMAD as part of his CAPital COntrol MEasures to tackle the ASian FInancial CRisis. I sighted CNN Reporting just a few days ago the exchange rate saw RINGGIT FALling further  to above RM3.84 against the USD1!.

**2.   THE last time media reports on the NATional DEBT-to-GDP (GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT) RATIO that I sighted from ECONOMIC ANALYSTS' writes in the media, including the MSM<, was about two months ago putting the RATIO AT 65Percent. THe MALeen always boasting the Malaysian government has been constantly kept below 55%, the self-imposed TRIGGER POINT. IF this IMPORTANT INDEX goes above 55%, it means the country is incurring MORE NATIONAL DEBT versus its GDP.

OF Course, we are still far from the 100% MArk, beyond which a country is deemed ACHIEVED BANKRUPTSY STATUS by international agencies; in contrast GREECE was reported to have gained the 175% RATIO, so it's getting Another BAILOUT from its brethren in the EUROZONE.

DEAR ER, may I seek thy forebearance as you have been wrt falling Ringgit while DESi goes for a BF BReak so I Cometh back to write/writHE badder! 
SO cheerio, to be CONTINUED ....if DESi survives CApitalist BF wit' AYamnKAMbing RENdang! INSyaAllah, yes, GODwillingYL, Desi, knottyaSSusual
______________________________ 

(TO BE CONTINUED TOMORROW... AS DESI's energies after lunch were diverted into writing a NEW POST Titled:

"MR PM&Cohorts, Art Thou Kidding US?" ENJOY OK:)

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UPDATED 7 AUGUST 2015:
THESun daily today carries in its sunbiz page 1 the following headline:

Ringgit hits 17-year
low against US dollar 

> MALaysian currency could breach 
RM4 to US$1 mark next week, says forex trader

NOTE THAT DESi couldn't CUT&PAstry from sun2surf.com , here's similar report from across the Causeway:~~



Ringgit drops to lowest since peg to US$ was scrapped











Ringgit drops to lowest since peg to US$ was scrapped
Malaysian ringgit banknotes. Bloomberg file photo
Published: 4:16 AM, July 7, 2015
(Page 1 of 2) - NEXT PAGE | SINGLE PAGE
SINGAPORE — A decade after Malaysia scrapped the ringgit peg to the United States dollar, the exchange rate is back where it began, just as Prime Minister Najib Razak contests a report alleging the misappropriation of funds.
The currency fell 0.8 per cent to 3.8092 versus the greenback in Kuala Lumpur and has dropped 23 per cent from a 2011 high, as a political debacle surrounding a state investment company exacerbated oil-related losses.
The ringgit hit 2.8189 against the Singapore dollar, the lowest level since 1990, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Former Premier Mahathir Mohamad had fixed the currency at 3.8 from 1998 to 2005 to protect businesses amid the Asian financial crisis, blaming speculators for pushing the ringgit to an unprecedented 4.885 to a dollar.
The peg was scrapped in July 2005 to re-energise the economy and attract foreign investment.
But amid its troubles, the currency has suffered.
The ringgit is Asia’s worst-performing currency this year, eroding returns for investors.


**3. DESi couldn't obtain the LATEST Debt:GDP ratio figure, so you guys out dare please supply me with some data, cun?; so this year 2015 wouldn't be able to help the GOvernment's coffers as much as in the past five years!

HERE's pampering you again, CUT&PASTry for thy BF, pls don't vomit on your lap or laptop! -- YL,DESi, knottyaSSusual











Malaysia's Petronas swings to US$2.02b loss in Q4


[KUALA LUMPUR] Malaysian state energy firm Petronas said on Friday it posted a net loss of 7.3 billion ringgit (S$2.75 billion) in the fourth quarter due to a slide in global oil prices and asset impairment losses.
In the same three-month period ending December 2014, Petronas, the single largest revenue contributor to the government, posted 12.8 billion ringgit profit.
It is Petronas' first ever quarterly loss since five years ago when it launched its quarterly reports.
Malaysia's only Fortune 500 company said that it plans capital spending cuts of between 20 to 30 billion ringgit for the next two years.









Revenue for the quarter was down 6.4 per cent to 79.4 billion ringgit from 84.8 billion ringgit in the same period last year, the company said.
"2015 average oil prices are expected to be significantly lower than 2014 and will impact profitability," the unlisted company said in a statement.
President and CEO Shamsul Azhar Abbas, who will step down at the end of March after being at the helm for five years, told reporters that Petronas will embark on a "prudent" strategy due to the slump in oil prices.
"Some key projects will be deferred. We are just being prudent," he said.
The weak quarterly results dragged down its net profit for the 12-month period ended December 31, 2014, which fell 27 per cent to 47.6 billion ringgit.
Petronas expects crude oil prices to hover around the US$55 a barrel level for 2015.
Petronas group CFO George Ratilal said the company's average crude price for the fourth quarter was around US$70 a barrel as compared to US$109 a barrel a year earlier, adding that profitability will be hurt in 2015 due to lower prices.
"Outlook is going to be bad for 2015. (But) we will be profitable for 2015," he said.
Chief Operating Officer Wan Zulkiflee Wan Ariffin will succeed Shamsul as president and chief executive.
AFP


***#. DESi has written in an earlier post that PETRONAS for the first time in the last quarter of 2014 reported a LOSS OF RM7.3billion

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UPDATED 4.47PM MONDAy 10August 2015:

From thestaronline.com:~~~~



Business News









Ringgit near 17-year low as Malaysia FX reserves fall below US$100bil

Monday, 10 August 2015








The ringgit stood at 3.9245 per dollar as of 0109 GMT, compared to the previous close of 3.9220.  The currency on Friday hit 3.9280, its weakest since Sept. 2 1998, the day before the government pegged it at 3.8000 per dollar to put a floor under the currency during the Asian financial crisis. Malaysia lifted the peg in 2005. - LIM BENG TATT/THE STAR file pic
The ringgit stood at 3.9245 per dollar as of 0109 GMT, compared to the previous close of 3.9220. The currency on Friday hit 3.9280, its weakest since Sept. 2 1998, the day before the government pegged it at 3.8000 per dollar to put a floor under the currency during the Asian financial crisis. Malaysia lifted the peg in 2005. - LIM BENG TATT/THE STAR file pic


SINGAPORE: The ringgit stayed near a pre-peg 17-year low on Monday after news Malaysia' foreign exchange reserves fell below US$100 billion threshold, raising doubts over the currency's ability to withstand further political fallout and low commodity prices.

The ringgit stood at 3.9245 per dollar as of 0109 GMT, compared to the previous close of 3.9220.

The currency on Friday hit 3.9280, its weakest since Sept. 2 1998, the day before the government pegged it at 3.8000 per dollar to put a floor under the currency during the Asian financial crisis. Malaysia lifted the peg in 2005.

Malaysia's international reserves fell to $96.7 billion as of July 31 from $100.5 billion on July 15, the central bank data showed on Friday.

"It now becomes a question of when does the bleeding stop?" asked Stephen Innes, senior trader for FX broker Oanda in Singapore.

"No doubt BNM (Bank Negara Malaysia) will continue to sell USD to temper the move higher but at what cost can they to do so as further drops in reserves will likely accelerate the move higher."

The central bank has been selling dollars and buying ringgit since June in an attempt to stem the ringgit's slide, traders said, but the ringgit has still been Asia's worst-performing currency this year, losing some 11 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar.

The ringgit's weakness has hit foreigners' appetite for local bonds, with five-year government bond yields rising to 3.856 percent, the highest level since Jan. 16.- Reuters


UPDATED !! AUgust 2015,


from THESUN ONLINE:~~

Bloodbath at KLCI as foreign exchange reserves and ringgit continue to free fall

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia's stock market tumbled 28.28 points or 1.68% to more than a two-year low yesterday on concerns over the continued slump in the ringgit and political uncertainties.
The FBM KLCI nose dived as much as 33.53 points or 1.99% to an intra-day low of 1,649.12 points, before closing at 1,654.37 points.

Almost all the 30 largest stocks fell, with Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd sliding the most in percentage points, by 4.3%, followed by SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd and Tenaga Nasional Bhd, which dropped 3.85%, 3.58% and 3.51% respectively.
Overall, there were 923 losers against 94 gainers on the local bourse. A total of 1.91 billion shares valued at RM1.99 billion changed hands.
Sector-wise, the properties index, which plummeted 2.36%, was the most hard hit against the broad-based FBM KLCI's 1.68% decline.
The fall in the stock market has however attracted interest in put warrants, especially for those on the FBM KLCI. FBMKLCI-HR was among the top gainer, closing 34.53% up.
The recent slump in the ringgit and ongoing controversies surrounding 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) have raised expectations of further outflow in foreign funds.
As at 5pm yesterday, the ringgit depreciated further to 3.9285 against the greenback compared with last Friday's close of 3.9235.
Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research expects the FBM KLCI to be in the range of 1,650 points and 1,700 points this week on the back of fragile confidence amid lingering local concerns and external risks.
BIMB Research reckons the local market will remain weak in the near future on concerns over the weakening ringgit, crude oil price and continuous selling by foreign institutions with strong support at 1,650 to 1,660 points.
On the economy front, the market was also alarmed by a drop in Malaysia's international reserves to below the US$100 billion mark for the first time since September 2010.
All eyes will also be on Bank Negara this week, as it is set to release the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers this Thursday, to see if the central bank will announce additional measures to stem the ringgit's drastic fall.
Regionally, Asian markets mostly went up yesterday despite the weakening economic data from China. MIDF Research said it is still watchful of any development in China's economy, as growth lower than 6% there, may be detrimental for Malaysia's economy and the global economy as a whole.
China's economy started the second half of the year on a weak note, posting disappointing trade and factory-price data in July amid pressure from slack demand at home and abroad. The world' second-largest economy also saw its July exports down 8.3% year-on-year, reversing a gain of 2.8% in June.

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UPDATED August 12, 2015,
from the sun daily online:~~~





No breather for ringgit as China devalues yuan

Posted on 12 August 2015 - 05:40am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
PETALING JAYA: The ringgit and the local stock market took a big hit yesterday after China shocked markets by devaluing the Yuan in a move that spiked the US dollar almost instantly.
In the wake of China's record 1.9% currency devaluation, the ringgit slid further to a mere 0.037 points away from the RM4 to the dollar level as at 5pm yesterday.
The local currency strengthened to 3.9735 to the dollar, up 23.67% from a year ago, while the FBM KLCI index lost 17.66 points or 1.07% yesterday.
China's move to devalue the yuan, an attempt to boost its exports, has put all eyes on Bank Negara Malaysia's on next move as one foreign currency (forex) trader reckons that the central bank will have to put the brakes on the "runaway" ringgit if it breaches the 4.00 per dollar level.

He said Bank Negara have not really made a significant effort to stop the ringgit fall although there has been speculation the central bank is buying the currency to stem its losses.
Malaysia's foreign-exchange reserves dropped below US$100 billion (RM397 billion) last month for the first time in five years, partly due to capital outflow from some withdrawal of portfolio funds by investors resulting in further depreciation of the ringgit.
Meanwhile, the KLCI extended its sell down after closing lower at 1,636.71 points despite chalking up gains early morning on the back of bargain-hunting.
Malaysian stocks succumbed to renewed selling-pressure as investors remain cautious over the domestic issue and a weak ringgit.
The finance Index fell 1.63% to 14,705.21 points, the properties index dropped 0.28% to 1,150.26 points and while the plantation index was down 0.36% to 7,154.67 points.
Among the laggards from the 30 largest stocks were AMMB which shed 18 sen to RM5.26, Petronas Dagangan (-70 sen to RM20.58), Maybank (-28 sen to RM8.52), Sime Darby (-24 sen to RM8.16) and Sapura Kencana -6 sen to RM2.19).
Market breadth was negative with 290 gainers as compared with 529 losers.

Related articles

  • UPDATED 14 August 2015: FROM THE malaymail.online:~~
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  • The ringgit dropped 1.4 per cent to 4.067 per dollar at 9:56 am in Kuala Lumpur, extending this week’s retreat to 3.6 per cent. — AFP picThe ringgit dropped 1.4 per cent to 4.067 per dollar at 9:56 am in Kuala Lumpur, extending this week’s retreat to 3.6 per cent. — AFP picHONG KONG, Aug 14 — Malaysia’s ringgit tumbled to the weakest level since 1998, extending an eighth week of declines as falling oil prices and political turmoil spur capital outflows.
    The ringgit dropped 1.4 per cent to 4.067 per dollar at 9:56 am in Kuala Lumpur, extending this week’s retreat to 3.6 per cent. Oil dropped 0.4 per cent in New York, heading for the lowest close since 2009.
    Foreign funds have dumped about US$3 billion (RM12.21 billion) of the nation’s shares this year as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak grapples with allegations of financial irregularities at a state investment company. The export-dependent economy is also threatened by a rout in commodity prices and China’s yuan devaluation this week.
    Gross domestic product rose 4.9 per cent in the three months through June from a year earlier, after climbing 5.6 per cent in the previous quarter, the central bank said in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. — Bloomberg 
    - See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/ringgit-continues-plunge-as-oil-prices-retreat#sthash.5i8R7za3.dpuf
     



Ringgit continues plunge as oil prices retreat

Friday August 14, 2015
10:33 AM GMT+8

ICYMI


 5
 5 Google +2  10
Tools
The ringgit dropped 1.4 per cent to 4.067 per dollar at 9:56 am in Kuala Lumpur, extending this week’s retreat to 3.6 per cent. — AFP picThe ringgit dropped 1.4 per cent to 4.067 per dollar at 9:56 am in Kuala Lumpur, extending this week’s retreat to 3.6 per cent. — AFP pic 

HONG KONG, Aug 14 — Malaysia’s ringgit tumbled to the weakest level since 1998, extending an eighth week of declines as falling oil prices and political turmoil spur capital outflows.
The ringgit dropped 1.4 per cent to 4.067 per dollar at 9:56 am in Kuala Lumpur, extending this week’s retreat to 3.6 per cent. Oil dropped 0.4 per cent in New York, heading for the lowest close since 2009.
Foreign funds have dumped about US$3 billion (RM12.21 billion) of the nation’s shares this year as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak grapples with allegations of financial irregularities at a state investment company. The export-dependent economy is also threatened by a rout in commodity prices and China’s yuan devaluation this week.
Gross domestic product rose 4.9 per cent in the three months through June from a year earlier, after climbing 5.6 per cent in the previous quarter, the central bank said in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. — Bloomberg 
- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/ringgit-continues-plunge-as-oil-prices-retreat#sthash.5i8R7za3.dpuf

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UPDATED ON AUG 27, 2015:

THE recent past few days saw the RINGGIT going south again, exchanging RM$.25 to USD1, and RM66 for 100remminbi and RM3.2 for SGD1. THE BURSa MAlaysia main index KLCI went below 1,600, so for those who played the STock MArket they would have LOST SOMe 10-20percent from a month ago IF THEY HELD ON TO THEIR STOCKS.

BUT THE GREATEST CONCERN AS FAR AS THE RAKYAT ARE CONCERNED< WORLD CRUdes price dipped below USD$0perbarrel; and many analysts predicted that a new LOW OF USD@)-25pb IS NOT UNGROUNDED: THAT that spells BIG, BIG, SUPERBIG, MEGABIG TROUBLE FOR PETRONAS, as OUR NATIONAL OIL CORPORATION IS THe BIGGEST SINGLE BUSINESS ENTITY OF OUR DEAR NEGARAKU, the oil and related industries generate revenues' contribution accounts for some 30PERCENT TO THE GOVERNMENT'S REVENUES ANNUALLY. THE last time the country paid a heavy price as world oil crudes price went down  reflected in PETRonas' balance sheet was in the last quarter of 2014 when it reported a nett loss of RM7.2BILLION, FIRST TIME AS REPORTED IN FIVE YEARS!

COMPOunded by GST IMplementation since APRIl 1, 2015, your caring government government said it was "GENEROUS" giving ye POOR PEOPLE BR1M OF RM950, BUT MY ESTIMATE THE COST OF LIVING FOR THE "POOR" FAMILY OF FOUR would have risen by RM2,000 to 4,000, which translates into a NET LOSS OF RM1,050 to RM3,050. So THOSE 48% WHO VOTED FOR BN in GE13, THINK HARD, VERY HEART if you care for YOURSELF AND FAMILY!
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OUR NEighbour SINGAPORE EXpresses CONcern!




Drop in ringgit, rise of religion in politics not good news, says Singapore
Published: 28 August 2015 8:41 AM
Singapore says Malaysia’s political and economical problems may also affect the republic’s own affairs. – Reuters pic, August 28, 2015. Singapore says Malaysia’s political and economical problems may also affect the republic’s own affairs. – Reuters pic, August 28, 2015. 

Singapore has expressed worry over recent economic and political developments in neighbouring Malaysia, saying the ringgit's drop along with increasingly religion-charged politics would affect the republic.
"We are the biggest investor in Iskandar Malaysia, so any trouble is a serious issue for us," Law and Foreign Minister K. Shanmugam said yesterday in a speech quoted by Business Times, referring to the southern economic hub in Johor which has attracted Singaporean businesses.
The ringgit crossed the psychological level of RM3.00 against the Singapore dollar this week, and as of yesterday stood at 3.01. Early this month, it was traded at RM2.75 to S$1.
The cheaper ringgit was good news to Singaporean shoppers, with businesses in neighbouring Johor reporting brisk sales.
But Shanmugam, saying the Malaysian economy was in for hard times, warned Singaporeans that their neighbours' troubles would not benefit them.
"When your neighbour's economy is in such a state, and your neighbour is your second largest trading partner, it doesn't benefit us," he told media professionals, as reported by The Straits Times.
Shanmugam also said Malaysia was facing race-related problems, adding that it could seen in the country's increasingly polarised education system.
He said national schools in Malaysia were "becoming more and more Malay and Islamic", keeping apart the Malays and Chinese from an early age.
Shanmugam said this was made worse by the increasing use of Islam in politics by the ruling party to take advantage of the Malays' support for Islamic laws and Islamisation.
"An honest politician, an upright politician, will find it very difficult to talk about a united Malaysia that is more integrated.
"The political dynamics are such that he will have to play to the Malay ground," he said, adding that investors who shunned Malaysia would also stay away from Singapore.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has been under pressure over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) affair, and the revelation that some RM2.6 billion was transferred to his personal accounts has added fuel to calls for his resignation.
Late last month, Najib announced a surprise Cabinet reshuffle, dropping his deputy Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin over criticism of his handling of the 1MDB issue. Najib also effectively halted an investigation into the heavily indebted state firm after he replaced the attorney-general and transferred out members of the Public Accounts Committee, which formed part of a special task force announced by the government.
A major rally by electoral reforms coalition Bersih 2.0 is set to take place in Kuala Lumpur, Kuching and Kota Kinabalu this weekend, to call for economic and political reforms amid the ringgit's worst performance in two decades. – August 28, 2015.
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/drop-in-ringgit-rise-of-religion-in-politics-not-good-news-says-singapore#sthash.NqToR3ZD.dpuf

Drop in ringgit, rise of religion in politics not good news, says Singapore


Singapore says Malaysia’s political and economical problems may also affect the republic’s own affairs. – Reuters pic, August 28, 2015. Singapore says Malaysia’s political and economical problems may also affect the republic’s own affairs. – Reuters pic, August 28, 2015.
Singapore has expressed worry over recent economic and political developments in neighbouring Malaysia, saying the ringgit's drop along with increasingly religion-charged politics would affect the republic. "We are the biggest investor in Iskandar Malaysia, so any trouble is a serious issue for us," Law and Foreign Minister K. Shanmugam said yesterday in a speech quoted by Business Times, referring to the southern economic hub in Johor which has attracted Singaporean businesses.
The ringgit crossed the psychological level of RM3.00 against the Singapore dollar this week, and as of yesterday stood at 3.01. Early this month, it was traded at RM2.75 to S$1.

The cheaper ringgit was good news to Singaporean shoppers, with businesses in neighbouring Johor reporting brisk sales. But Shanmugam, saying the Malaysian economy was in for hard times, warned Singaporeans that their neighbours' troubles would not benefit them.
"When your neighbour's economy is in such a state, and your neighbour is your second largest trading partner, it doesn't benefit us," he told media professionals, as reported by The Straits Times.
Shanmugam also said Malaysia was facing race-related problems, adding that it could seen in the country's increasingly polarised education system.
He said national schools in Malaysia were "becoming more and more Malay and Islamic", keeping apart the Malays and Chinese from an early age.
Shanmugam said this was made worse by the increasing use of Islam in politics by the ruling party to take advantage of the Malays' support for Islamic laws and Islamisation.
"An honest politician, an upright politician, will find it very difficult to talk about a united Malaysia that is more integrated.
"The political dynamics are such that he will have to play to the Malay ground," he said, adding that investors who shunned Malaysia would also stay away from Singapore.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has been under pressure over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) affair, and the revelation that some RM2.6 billion was transferred to his personal accounts has added fuel to calls for his resignation.
Late last month, Najib announced a surprise Cabinet reshuffle, dropping his deputy Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin over criticism of his handling of the 1MDB issue. Najib also effectively halted an investigation into the heavily indebted state firm after he replaced the attorney-general and transferred out members of the Public Accounts Committee, which formed part of a special task force announced by the government.
A major rally by electoral reforms coalition Bersih 2.0 is set to take place in Kuala Lumpur, Kuching and Kota Kinabalu this weekend, to call for economic and political reforms amid the ringgit's worst performance in two decades. – August 28, 2015.
- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/drop-in-ringgit-rise-of-religion-in-politics-not-good-news-says-singapore#sthash.NqToR3ZD.dpuf




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