BUT WILL THE MAJORITY EXCEED 13,338 votes, the margin that his wife Datin Dr Wan Azizah Ismail won on Marh 8, 2008?
Desi will C&P from Sdr Ahrudin Attan's on site latest post update, then will follow with an own roundup, hastily done after a 2-1/2-day busman's holiday on an islan I love to call my own, but even the Pakatan Rakyat government wouldn't yield...So let's just dream on I'll get to that 20million I-LAND in the sun before 2020. Mis Patience is also Miss/Mr/In-between Virtuous.
From rockybru.blogspot.com:
Monday, August 25, 2008
Permatang Pauh, last call
A Long Final Day (and A Short Relief for Anwar?) For the last two days, I've been running around Penang interviewing people and reporting for RazorTV, the region's latest Internet TV or IPTV. In the last 24 hours, I spoke to the two main candidates for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary by-election - Anwar Ibrahim and Arif Shah.
Anwar told me this afternoon that he remains confident of winning, despite the controversial new electoral list that the Election Commission has come up with. The "confession" by Imam Ramlang Porigi seems to have been a big relief to Anwar (but according to Bernama here, Najib has said only the Mufti can decide on the validity of Saiful's swearing by the Quran and the Mufti can be expected to say something by tonight, the eve of the by-election, so Anwar's relief may be short-lived!).
I had been told that Arif spoke Mandarin so I thought I'd start my interview with him this morning with "Ni Hau Ma?". The guy launched a good two or three-minute speech in Mandarin to say how confident he is now of winning.
Independent election observers I interviewed today were not happy with the huge presence of cops (about 6,000 police officers have been deployed for a by-election with just over 58,000 voters). The complained about unnecessary road blocks and also about the Election Commission holding polling day on a weekday. The special public holiday the Penang government has declared for tomorrow does not appease them. But Yunus Ali, the chairperson of the National Institute for Electoral Integrity, said the watchers were impressed with one thing: ALL ceramahs and gatherings got approvals.
I am going to a carnival tonight on the mainland, organised by the Pakatan Rakyat, where the politicians hope to party.
I was told the interviews will be aired on RazorTV tonight . Please check it out at www.razor.tv
*********************************** Desi's report for what it's worth
***********************************
News feature style, oay!
By YL CHONG
Journalist buddy Terence N and YL traversed Seberang Jaya and Semilang and Penanti on Saturday and Sunday to "feel the pulse" of the Permatang Pauh electorate. Short calls like this -- termed "helicopter" coverage in media jargon -- are only good accompanied by having sered locally as newshounds, so Terence and I qualify. But we two are also know PKR supporters, so our lenses are coloured by some partisan paints, so I tender a whispered "sorry", but not on behalf of matey Terence, for he is his own man.
Speaking with an Ah Soh and a Ayah at a quickstop ceramah by Pakatan Rakyat-PKR candidate Anwat Ibrahim, at Seberang Jaya 2, I discern most of them will opt for change as promised by Anwar. There is no doubt the campaigns frm both sides ae anchored on the Malaysian Malay majority making up the 58,000 electorate. It is how the MM will decide at the August 26 polling booth which will determine the eventual outcome.
Hence the overwhelmingly dominant issue is on Saiful Bukhari Azlan's sodomy charge against Anwar, wuth the government-taped TV coverage of Saiful's swearing before FT mosque imam Ramlang Porigi being played to death to run the former DPM's image down -- as someone not fit to be Prime Minister (as was former PM DR Mahathir Mohamad's main weapon to kill off his deputy's political career a decade earlier.) Hence also the constant challneges by the PM and DPM to Anwar to also swear his innocence of Saiful's charge.
A late arrival by Ramlang inperson at Permatang Pauh late Sunday night was a real salvo by Anwar's camp, much helped by royal Blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin, to destroy UMNO's chief platform to disgrace Anwar.
Other issues the BN -- chiefly UMNO as there is a conspicious absence of other component party leaders; maybe the MCA and MIC et al kakis have good intelligence that this time around, ABSENCE MAKES THE (VOTERS') HEARTS GROW FONDER!--
had campaigned on are:
** That the recent arrests of two Perak State Exco, from PKR, for corrupt pratices, and hence charging that the Opposition coalition leaders also are not free of corruption.
*** That the Government's recent 15-sen reduction in petrol price shows the Govvernment's concern about the Rakyat's interests relating to inflation and the rising prices of fuel and transportation, and essential goods.
Anwar at his ceramah campaigned on the theme of MERDEKA
(FREEDOM) from Oppression, Crime and Corruption.
In responses to BN's allegations and claims, Anwar used wit and humour to state that:
* the act of swearing by Saiful, or by any "criminal" on the Quran would not prove the swearer's innocence of wrong-doing. If this is how a criminal proves his innocence, a rapist aor murderer could just get away by taking an oath before a Holy book? Then al criinals will just get away by swearing using the Qran as Saiful did, he added.
** That if there was anyone the Rakayt should tahnk for the 15-sen petrol price reduction, it would be the PKR candidate in the PP by-election, ie. DSAI-lah, grinning his boyish grin. And receiving applause that naturally followed.
Anwar also lamented that the Rakyat are suffering because of the high crime rates and people do not feel safe anymore.
But the worst enemy is still the CORRUPTION among the Government leaders, resulting in huge wastages and seepages of the Governent's funds meant for the country's development and promoting the Rakyat's wellbeing.
In conculsion, my take is that only "dity tricks" up in the league of past US presidential Dick Nixonian proportions could achieve victory fo BN's Arif Shah, and he should then take Saiful into his chamber, open up the champagne botol, perhaps other orifices.
Yes, my reading is that SDAI would definitely march into Parliament, but this time around with a reduced majority, smaller than the 13,338 votes obtaned by his wife last March 8. My rediction is the ex-DPM would win by a 10,000 majority, decent enought to "effect" the cross-overs of the BN patliamentarians. (+++++ I will run fellow scribe KIM QUEK's piece on this subjevct later. Stay Tuned!:)
Come August 26, now less than two crucial days away, it is not just the fate of ONE PARLIAMENT SEAT at stake for de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim; in the balance is the much anticipated "cross-overs" to immediate follow when by a minimum of 30 Barian Nasional MPs from Sabah and Sarwak will join the PR coalition of DAP. PAS and PKR, to be able to form an alternative Federal Government. If it transpires, and it does, it would have to happen before Merdeka Day on Aug 31, 2008, marking the first aftermath second wave after March 8 GE 2008 tsunami swing against the seemingly invncible BN, which for the first time, lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament.
Let me urge the VOTERS of Permatang Pauh to ponder:
All that is necessary for the triumph
of evil is that good men do nothing.-- Edmund Burke
******************************
NO CHOICE BUT TO MARCH INTO PUTRAJAYA
By Kim Quek
August 25, 2008
How will future historians fifty or a hundred years from now look at Permatang Pauh in relation to Malaysia ? Will it be like Gettysburg to USA , or Yenan to the new China – famous names that evoke memories of major turning points in the history of nations?
The answer depends on how the people in Permatang Pauh will vote in the by-election on August 26, 2008 . Not whether Anwar Ibrahim will be returned as a Member of Parliament, but whether the electorate will give Anwar a decisive margin of victory that can be taken as an endorsement of his plan to take over power from the crumbling and decadent Barisan Nasional (BN).
If Anwar wins by a convincing majority – despite BN waging the dirtiest of election campaigns in memory against him – then he will be well poised to formalize the cross-over of disenchanted Barisan Nasional MPs who share the aspirations of Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and are now waiting for such a moment to make the switch. With BN already in an advanced stage of disintegration and decadence while the economy is fast sinking amidst public fury and distrust, the anticipated cross-over, once triggered, will turn into a torrent that will sweep PR into power.
DISINTEGRATING BN
Since the March 8 general elections, BN, which is a grouping of 14 racial parties, has already lost its traction as a coalition. Satellite parties like MCA, Gerakan, MIC have made scathing attacks against the dominant core party UMNO, blaming the latter’s racial arrogance and hegemony for the collapse of their popular support within their own individual racial groupings. They have asked for drastic changes of UMNO’s policy – changing from master-servant relationship to genuine partnership of mutual respect and equitable sharing – so as to enable them to recoup their lost support. However, UMNO has instead moved in the opposite direction. It has intensified its racial agenda in an apparent attempt to consolidate and expand its core support – the Malay voters, at the expense of support from other races.
This strategy is no doubt driven by the recognition that UMNO still enjoys considerable Malay support, especially in the rural areas, while BN has little hope of regaining support of other races from Pakatan Rakyat, which advocates a pro-rakyat policy within the framework of egalitarianism under the Constitution.
The evolving scenario is polarization of political development – an increasingly ethnocentric UMNO relying on repression to preserve its political and racial hegemony on one side versus an unrelenting multi-racial reform movement that vows to foster national unity, restore democracy and rule of law and re-vitalise the sagging economy.
We thus see a struggling racist UMNO, hanged on to it by subservient racial parties which are now propped up by leaders with vested interests in the government but are badly emaciated by disappearing grassroots. If a general election is held today, it is not an exaggeration to say that the race based parties in the Peninsular – MCA, Gerakan, MIC - will be completely routed.
The scenario in Sabah and Sarawak is somewhat different where BN’s coalition partners are mostly native-based parties and where Pakatan Rakyat has not established a strong foothold. Their grouses are mainly regional marginalization and failure to honour the 1963 Malaysia Pact (which grants them equal partnership with Peninsular Malaysia) by the UMNO-dominated federal government. The Sabahans, who have been plagued by illegal immigrants that now outnumber the locals, have attributed their widespread poverty and under-development and severe social unrest to willful negligence and exploitation by the federal government. Many leaders have quietly planned or contemplated to cross over to PR for a more equitable deal.
Meanwhile the backbone of BN, UMNO, is at its weakest in history. It is bereft of political idealism, badly fragmented by power struggle under a feeble leader, and its body politic critically corroded by a political malignancy that has almost become synonymous with UMNO – money politics.
RIPE FOR CROSS-OVER
It is not difficult to see that Putrajaya is ripe for the picking by Anwar, since many BN leaders, including those from UMNO, are ready to jump ship from this Titanic, having sighted the inescapable iceberg ahead. All that is needed now is a clarion call from the electorate in Permatang Pauh in the form of an emphatic majority to enable Anwar to embark on this historical mission.
But will the electorate of Permatang Pauh oblige? Perhaps this question should be answered by another question: is there an alternative? What will happen if Anwar fails to win a convincing majority and his effort to affect the anticipated cross-over from BN is frustrated?
We will then see an untenable impasse that will put our political and economic future to peril. For BN will continue its current effort to economically strangulate PR-controlled states through cutting off federal funds and canceling development projects, while stepping up repression through unconstitutional manipulation of state institutions - police, attorney general, judiciary, election commission and even the anti-corruption agency – to contain the rapidly growing popular support of PR. Avowed reforms on the judiciary, police and ACA will surely be thrown out of the window, as these reforms are anti-thesis to a repressive regime.
As it is, our economy is already in jeopardy due to mismanagement under a corrupt and inept political leadership that seems to be perpetually pre-occupied with intra-party in-fighting, racial and religious squabbles, and sheer incompetence exhibited in frequent policy flip-flops, massive leakages and irresponsible squandering.
Hence, as tension builds up between BN and PR, the economy will be further jeopardized through undue starving of federal funds and the inevitable shrinking of investments arising from further loss of investors’ confidence as the rule of law continues to slide.
ONLY ONE ALTERNATIVE
This intractable BN-PR deadlock can only be satisfactorily resolved by one of two solutions: either UMNO embarks on a path of genuine reforms to bring the country back to constitutional rule, or PR takes over the government to institute the much needed reforms to turn the country around onto the path of national unity and robust economic growth.
Six months have lapsed since the political tsunami of March 8, and there is no indication that UMNO is willing or capable of carrying out any of such reforms. Hence, there is only one alternative left: PR must march on to Putrajaya without delay.
And the electorate of Permatang Pauh are now entrusted with the sacrosanct duty to make that historical decision on behalf of the nation.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
UPDATEd on D-Day:) from cpiasia.net:
Reject Racial Politicking Tactics in Permatang Pauh By-Elections
Press Statements
Tuesday, 26 August 2008 10:00
Reject Racial Politicking Tactics in Permatang Pauh By-Elections
Will the coming Permatang Pauh by elections turn out to be the lowest point in Malaysian election history in terms of dirty electioneering, despicable campaign standards and sophisticated election rigging and vote buying?
We, the undersigned civil society organizations and all fair minded Malaysians hope not. However feedback from our observers as well as from many others at the ground level is indicating that there is a real possibility of this happening. Party leaders of the contesting parties may claim that they are waging a fair campaign. However the onus is on them to not only exercise full control over their respective election personnel and machineries to compete fairly but also to immediately repudiate whatever unethical behavior or unacceptable activities that are engaged in by their party supporters or proxies.
As civil society organizations that are not aligned to any political party and in our role as the watchdogs of democratic norms, we are concerned that our elections are far from free and fair and conform to international good practice. In particular, we call on - especially to the parties in the Barisan Nasional and to the candidate, Dato Ariff Shah Omar Shah, himself - to dissociate themselves from racially and religiously divisive messages that are appearing in printed form, short message service (SMS) and in private speeches aimed at voters – especially those that play up the fears of one ethnic group against another.
Such attempts at crude racial politicking and the use of inflammatory and racially distorted content to win votes need to be condemned by not only the contesting parties and candidates but also by other stakeholders. In this respect, the mainstream mass media has an important role to play in reporting on the election action and developments on the ground in a fair, unbiased and neutral way. Not only should equal and balanced coverage be extended to the campaigns of the two candidates but the press should also be a scrupulously accurate and honest monitor reporting any unethical or unacceptable form of electioneering and exposing the use of dirty tricks or extremist manipulation of racial and religious issues, whether this comes from the PR or BN camps.
It is not only the people of Permatang Pauh that are watching to see if a fair and honestly conducted elections will take place: one that focuses on real and substantive issues of local economic and social development and on
the best choice of candidate and party to address the many issues of poverty, rising cost of living and lack of opportunities for upward mobility that many voters face. All Malaysians and a large interested international community are also watching.
*Endorsed by:*
1. All Women's Action Society (AWAM)
2. Center for Orang Asli Concerns (COAC)
3. Center for Policy Initiatives (CPI)
4. Institute for Research and Social Advancement (REFSA)
5. Jaringan Rakyat Tertindas (JERIT)
6. Labor Resource Center (LRC)
7. Malaysia Youth And Student democratic movement (DEMA)
8. National Institute of Electoral Integrity (NIEI)
9. Persatuan Kesedaran Komuniti Selangor (Empower)
10. Persatuan Masyarakat Selangor & Wilayah Persekutuan (PERMAS)
11. Pusat Khidmat Pekerja Tanjung (PKPT)
12. Suara Rakyat Malaysia (SUARAM)
13. Youth for Change (Y4C)
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