EXUBERANCE brings on freefall

At the stock markets, more often than not.
I was asked about 1/2 hour ago (now it's 6.29pm) why I did not have any postings on the Bursa Malaysia in recent weeks, especially tracking the "bull run".
I replied that I had written about the stock market in a general view some months back, cautioning "retail" players who get sucked in "late" into any market on a bull run, often left carrying the baby when the crash inevitably comes. It's not a question of IF, but a question of WHEN, the freefal follows the exuberant wave after wave of crests within a short p[eriod of a month or two.

When the stock market shows an exuberant run upwards beyong some 20% within a short period of just two months, it's mostly
NOT SUSTAIABLE.

I'm recording the second day of the "freefall" that started yesterday when almost all the bourses worldwide experienced 3% tro 7% falls. From Yahoo! News as stated 15 minues ago from when I started this post, 6.29pm).


By HANS GREIMEL, Associated Press Writer
17 minutes ago



TOKYO - Chinese stocks bounced back Wednesday after their biggest decline in a decade, but stock markets in Asia and Europe fell for a second day amid investor jitters about possible slowdowns in the Chinese and U.S. economies.

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Shares in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India, Australia and the Philippines all tumbled more than 2 percent after Wall Street suffered its worst day Tuesday since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

While several Asian markets trimmed big early losses by afternoon, nervous investors were still wary of whether the slump marks the beginning of a downward spiral or just a one-time jolt to cool overheating markets.

"We don't need to worry about a big reduction from here, but this correction could continue for the next couple months," said Shinichi Ichikawa, an equity strategist with Credit Suisse First Boston in Tokyo.

In China, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.9 percent Wednesday to close at 2,881.07, rebounding from its 8.8 percent plunge Tuesday — its biggest drop in a decade.

Bullish comments in the state-controlled media appeared to reassure jittery domestic investors, who account for virtually all trading. China will focus on ensuring financial stability and security, the official Xinhua News Agency cited Premier Wen Jiabao as saying in an essay due to be published in Thursday's issue of the Communist Party magazine Qiushi.

Authorities in China also denied rumors of a 20 percent capital gains tax on stock investments — speculation that had played a role in Tuesday's plunge.

Still, investors dumped stocks across much of Asia Wednesday, partly unnerved by the 3.3 percent drop overnight in the Dow Jones industrial average. Comments Monday from former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who said a recession in the U.S. — a huge export market for Asian companies — was "possible" later this year, also unnerved investors.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index tumbled 515.80 points, or 2.85 percent, to 17,604.12, while Philippine stocks plunged 7.9 percent, their worst drop since 1997, at the height of the Asian financial crisis.

Australian stocks closed down 2.7 percent after falling as much as 3.5 percent, while Singapore's Straits Times Index was down 3 percent after sinking as much as 5.6 percent earlier.

In Europe, Britain's benchmark FTSE 100 Index was down 1 percent to 6,224.40 in morning trading, while France's CAC 40 Index lost 2.3 percent.

Many Asian markets were due for a correction after their recent spectacular performance, analysts said.

Benchmark indexes in China, Australia and Singapore had all hit records in February. Before this week's plunge, Malaysian stocks had gained 17 percent this year, while Philippine shares had climbed about 12 percent.

Wednesday's sell-off was a limited, knee-jerk response, said Kiichi Fujita, an equity strategist with Nomura Securities in Tokyo. "It's a bit of an overreaction," he said.

Other equity analysts said the market's volatility could trigger more selloffs, despite sound economic data.

"A lot of that exuberance about just buying anything at all cost just starts to evaporate if the market has big falls like this," said David Halliday, associate director at Macquarie Equities. "I think the important thing to note is that this hasn't been triggered by an economic, financial or political crisis."

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki echoed that sentiment, trying to quell concerns about the Tokyo market by stressing that overall fundamentals in Japan were still strong.

"On a broad perspective the corporate sector continues to perform well," Shiozaki said. "A long-term economic recovery is continuing."

On Wednesday, Australian Treasurer Peter Costello predicted the plunge in China's share market would trigger "volatility on equity markets for some time."

But his overall assessment of China's economy was positive, telling reporters the Asian giant would continue to grow, albeit "in fits and starts."

Some regional brokers said they saw an element of panic selling among retail investors but that more experienced investors were sitting it out. Other market players were on the look out for bargain hunters to emerge.

"If your target is gains by the end of 2007, this is a good chance to buy," said Credit Suisse's Ichikawa. "But if it's the end of March, I can't say that."

DESI: mGf at 2020freelunch had tracked the "happenings" pretty well about the record turnovers and bull run at Bursa Malaysia and some regional bourses. Pay her Blog a visit and leave advisory that I recommended her site. If you punt on her raedings, any gain is her and Desi's responsibility. If you lose, it's your own irresponsibilty.

Always, the consumers' dictum, Caveat Emptor, applies.:)
Play the market if you have SURP{LUS SAVINGS. Otherwise, just treat Desi&Co to tehtarik and Bersembang-sembang politik cukup-lah!