My Anthem

Monday, December 08, 2008

The finance ministers I and II tell you not to worry...

about Malaysia going the way of most other countries -- hitting RECESSION as a result of global financial systemic meltdowns that started more than a year ago with the US supprime crisis though hpusing loans defaults on a massive scale.

But Malaysian Finance Minister, also the DPM, and his deputy, socalled Finance Miister II, have assured that Malaysia is in very stable conditions; but the man-in-the-street is hardly buying Government speak nowadays. ***I will tell WHY later just wrt PETROL PRICES. Ms Patience is also Ms Virtuous eh! "Minta maaf, this has to wait for another day!" (YL, Desi Dec 10,2008 @8.43AM:(

**** UPDATED: Please see a latter Post dated December 10, 2008 borrowed from malaysia-today! ****


Meanwhile,let's see what some Press reports from across the southern border paint of Malaysia's economic landscape, via TWO SBT reports:


Malaysian exports shrink a sharp 14.2% in October
Contributing to the decline were electronic products and commodities


By PAULINE NG IN KUALA LUMPUR

THE recession in the developed economies has hit Malaysia. The country's exports fell 14.2 per cent in October, marking the start of a trend that economists expect to continue into 2009. The sharp month-on-month drop in October exports to RM53.5 billion (S$22.5 billion) was due to lower exports of electrical and electronic (E&E) products and commodities, mainly refined and crude petroleum and palm oil.Major markets that registered declines were the US, Singapore, China, Hong Kong and Australia - all of which, except for China, are in a recession or hurting badly from the global financial crisis.Malaysia's imports declined at 7.8 per cent in October to RM43.8 billion, resulting in a monthly trade surplus of about RM9.7 billion, down from RM14.7 billion in September.Malaysia, which has registered monthly trade surpluses since November 1997, is likely to see these narrow until 2010. And trade deficits cannot be ruled out, said the executive director of Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER), Mohamed Ariff Abdul Kareem.Global demand for oil has shrunk drastically, with national oil company Petronas revealing this week that it has halted production at its petrochemical plant in Kertih, Terengganu because of lack of demand. MIER's Mr Ariff said that much will depend on the oil price, which hit US$147 a barrel in July but is now less than US$50 a barrel. Should oil continue to trade below US$60 a barrel, Malaysia's trade surpluses and revenue will shrivel.One bright spot is the services sector, which made a positive contribution to the economy in October for the first time in years. Amid steep falls in commodity prices and E&E demand, the services sector - primarily tourism - is expected to be the main driver of the economy in the short term.Malaysia's exports for the 10 months to October hit RM566 billion, an increase of almost 14 per cent year-on-year. Total trade this year has already surpassed RM1 trillion. But with the tide turning quickly - an estimated 12,000 jobs were lost in the third quarter - Mr Ariff said that the government should do more to retrain workers to take some of the burden off the private sector.He described the government's proposed economic stimulus package of RM7 billion as 'just peanuts', and said that pouring most of it into construction and infrastructure owing to their so-called multiplier effect is questionable as construction workers are overwhelmingly foreigners.

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Business Times (Singapore) - 03 Dec 2008

KL firms' weak Q3 earnings spark analyst downgrades Sectors such as construction, telco, transport, banking underperform
By PAULINE NG IN KUALA LUMPUR

ANALYSTS have slashed their earnings growth forecasts after corporate Malaysia turned in a third quarter performance that revealed earnings to be souring faster than expected. Malaysian corporations posted a second consecutive quarter of earnings disappointment, with a bigger number of companies slumping in their performance.While one in four companies covered by stockbroker HwangDBS-Vickers proved to be a letdown for the second quarter, 34 per cent did not live up to expectations for the third.That the current global financial dislocations have already exacted a toll on Malaysia Inc was reflected in the aggregate fall in net profit. In HwangDBS's universe of companies, profit fell a steep 29 per cent year on year and 30 per cent quarter on quarter.Transport, telco, banking, and construction were significant underperformers but a number of big caps across the board were off target: Maybank (with its impairment losses on its Pakistan unit MCB), Bumiputra-Commerce (weak capital markets), TMI (losses in Bangladesh and India), MAS (higher jet fuel costs), MISC (higher operating costs), Genting (significant investment write-offs), and Tenaga (higher coal costs). Aseambankers observed that it was not a season to be jolly, its universe of companies posting a greater letdown with 43 per cent of the 88 stocks underperforming. The stockbroker has downgraded the earnings of virtually every sector - except for consumer - and reduced its 2008-2009 market forecasts by 4.3 and 7.6 per cent respectively. In a strategy report, it said that market earnings this year would likely expand a mere 0.9 per cent before contracting 6.4 per cent next year, but acknowledged the potential for further downside to its forecasts through to 2010 where it anticipates a 7 per cent recovery.The drop in third quarter profits is in line with the softer economy, which in the third quarter expanded 4.7 per cent, down from 6.3 per cent three months ago.HwangDBS is more optimistic about this year's earnings growth, pegging it at 6.7 per cent, but has projected earnings to contract 8.8 per cent next year.Its downgrades included two blue chips - Sime Darby and Resorts World. Sime was rated a 'sell' because of its high multiples relative to the sector, while Resorts' perceived pricey related-party purchase of a 10 per cent stake in Walker Digital Gaming earned it a 'hold' from a 'buy'.Top on Aseambankers' list of unpleasant surprises in the third quarter was budget carrier AirAsia's RM428 million (S$180 million) derivatives-related losses. Fraser & Neave's unexpected consumer defaults at its non-core property division in spite of the buoyant outlook at its Fraser Business Park project raised alarm bells, as did IOI Corporation's scrapping of plans to buy Menara Citibank which led to the forfeiting of a RM73 million deposit.Despite the challenging economic climate, 16-17 per cent of companies covered exceeded expectations for the third quarter. Auto player Tan Chong Motors emerged as one of the bigger surprises, its sharp 40 per cent rise in net profit achieved on the back of stronger new model sales. Other 'consensus beaters' were JT International and UMW. Any relief rallies in the last quarter are likely to be limited by the rapid deterioration in the global economic scene, but window dressing activities at year-end could provide a bit of cheer. ===============Business Times - 06 Dec 2008

2 comments:

moot said...

moo_t here.

USA will eventually come out from the slump. Because USA has tons of heavy weights knowledge industrial that "pull" other industry.

At home, plantation, petroleum and finance industrial dominate the economy. And this is the agriculture age + industrial age economy.

Thanks to the structure, Malaysia knowledge industrial can't do much to help economy. Worst, they must go out to secure oversea project since those agriculture and finance heavyweight refuse to spend on knowledge economy (also thanks to the government that help them to enable a cartel)

IMHO, the global economy crisis will restructure the world economy. But Malaysia government has a bigger dilemma than mahathir : tons of umno money are stuck in agri and industrial age sector.

So called "bio-economy" are NOT agriculture age product. It is a knowledge age stuff. It need a system that help develop mind, idea, knowledge,etc.

chong y l said...

moo _ t:

Did you take leave AS consultant TO DE WORLD BANK? mISS YOU LOTS -- MAYBE THE NEW gOMEN MAY SOON ENGAGE YOU AS ECONIMIC CONSULTANT -- I GIVE SOME RECOMMEN, YOU OFFER ME THE USUAL 30?:)

iS YOUR BAR DOING BRISKY BIZ? pEOPLE MAY SWITCH FROM BIR TO RUT DAN CAFFE:)

How kum you no show at KLSCAH lust Fridae for Forum? I ta-pau-ed mee sian and coffee-blu for Thee!:( Steal in my fridge:) UNBecoming frigid...