Lies, damned lies and statistics

TheSun in an editorial a few days ago reprised that quotation we are all too familiar with under:

Lies, damned lies and statistics

""**BENJAMIN Disraeli, Prime Minister of England from 1874 to 1880, was reported by Mark Twain to have in frustration uttered this wonderful line about statistical analysis: "There are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies and statistics".

"This famous aphorism was later adapted as the title of a book Damned Lies and Statistics by Joel Best, published in 2001 by the University of California. In it, Best wrote on how to spot bad statistics and think critically about those numbers that are dished out by those in the business of churning out numbers."

He also wrote in an article in The Chronicle Review, a US-based academic publication: "Some statistics are born bad - they aren't much good from the start, because they are based on nothing more than guesses or dubious data. Other statistics mutate; they become bad after being mangled.

"Statistics, then, have a bad reputation. We suspect that statistics may be wrong, that people who use statistics may be 'lying' - trying to manipulate us by using numbers to somehow distort the truth. Yet at the same time we need statistics, we depend upon them to summarise and clarify the nature of our complex society."

"We decided to quote Best, whose book was a seminal work in the field of interpreting statistics, to discuss an issue that has been bugging us and some other newspaper publishers - readership numbers.

"Readers of this newspaper would remember the series of articles we published several months ago questioning the credibility of newspaper readership numbers provided by a research company.

"How can it be that newspapers which have circulation figures (number of copies sold or distributed) only twice ours, have readership that is four to six times bigger? The research firm has extrapolated (Best will probably call it nothing more than guesses), that while each copy of theSun and the NST has between 1.5 to two readers, each copy of other newspapers have close to four readers per copy.


DESIDERATA's beef today is NOT in siding these two nwspapers -- who may be adopting the common stance politicians always use -- Let's gang up today to face OUR common enemy. Our own battles with each other can wait.

In the early days, Audit Bureau of Circulation (ABC) statitistics were the numbers used to guide advertising.

But in the last decade, there is new competition, which by the way, has given rise to CONTENTION. But contention is good. It gives rise to more than one side of the story. It leads to what Desiderata has always promoted: the CLASH OF THE MINDS, and no one would be a loser.

I don't kNOw why newspapers only look at the TWO SIDES on the story now on this readership versus circulation figures. They failed to achieve balance in political and social issues coverage -- like Government versus Opposition views --, and they now want understanding from the public about their woes when things don't go their way.

Read this from theSun and the NST's common rival, I summarised from THE STAR August 24, 2005:

NEWSPAPER READERSHIP FIGURES SHOW THE STAR IN THE LEAD

"THE STAR has strengthened its position as Malaysia’s leading English daily by gaining another 21,000 readers for 2Q 2005 compared with the 1Q 2005, The latest statistics released by international media research agency, AC Nilesen, on August 23, 2005 was reported by THE STAR August 24, 2005, which showed THE STAR’s daily readership rising Q1 to Q2 by 2 per cent to 1,161,000 from 1,140,100. The figures showed the NEW STRAITS TIMES’ readership falling by 25,000 or 7 per cent to 331,000 from 356,000 while MALAY MAIL’s fell by 5,000 or 4 per cent to 131,000 from 136,000. Readership of THE SUN, which is distributed free, was flat at 224,000."


I'm letting my EsteemedReaders judge which parties should be given the benefit of the doubt. As far as I'm concerned, my quetsion goes back to UMNO YOUTH and PETRONAS in issues which are bigger than what the bloody media are fighting about!

I'm sorry if I sound like a record player re-playing the same song, but THIS SONG is the Rakyat's bread-and-butter issues. Desi explains why.

(1) PETRONAS

The national oil corporation is a netbeneficiary whenever the world market oil price rises, but the Governmnet keep quoting statitstics that its oil subsidies cannot be sustained and hence the pump prices for petrol and diesel must rise in tandem.

Desi's contention since the country exports more oil -- of better grades and hence commanding higher prices -- the net effect of any oil price will see MALAYSIA GETTING MORE REVENUE. WE SHOULD CELEBRATE EVERY TIME THERE IS A PRICE INCREASE IN WORLD OIL PRICES.

The only trouble is that the Government is telling us only half-truths. The trouble is that in the cenarionn when world prices fell, our pump prices did NOT fall in tandem. SO WHAT GIVES?

That's Desiderata's first cut of beef for today.


(2) UMNO YOUTH

At the recent UMNO general assembly, the now infamous holder of that bloody keris Hishamuddin Hussein bleated out the figure of 18-19percent that the Bumiputera share equity amounts to today, still way before the target of 30percent set in 1970, the start of the New Economic Policy.

Based on this "smart" statistic, this UMNO Youth chief went on to call for the revival of the NEP, which many quarters have lamented had contributed largely to the birth, enhancement of the subsidy mentality, the rent-seeking and commission-collection abuses as prominently shown by the Approved Permits issue (thanks to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, we must give credit where credit's due.)

But raising DESIDERATA's HOPE was this genteleman UMNO lesser chief Shaberry Cheek who revealed that the Bumiputera equity stake was already attained at 18-19percent way back in 1985. So Desi's question that follows logically is: Has the Bumi stake stood still in percentage terms for bloody 20 short years fom 1985 to 2005.

I might as well bury my head with the OZ ostriches if any reader belives in this myth that the keris-wielding chieftain has raised. I believe Hishamuddin (also our Education Minister, BTW) has conveniently excluded those Bumi stakes held by Government-linked Companies, which are HIGHLY CAPITALISED. Allso others, federal and tsate=owned agencies, statory bodies and investment agencies, all holding equities on trust for Bumiputera interests (and individuals?). Desi would venture to guess that if all these other equities were inlcuded in the proper manner, open and transparent, the Bumiputera stake of 30percent had already been reached, maybe even surpassed. I really don't kNOw, becuase nobody in the authorised position, wants to tell.

My second cut of beef today is that these politicians have just been doing what Disraeli had been saying all along, and thanks to Mark Twain's good reporting, (like Desi?, we EsteemedReaders have much Food for Thought. I apologise for wracking, not wrecking!, on this lazy, hazy Saturday morn. September morn, time to Try to Remember.

And to pehaps Capture for Many the Nostalgia, and Highs (and Lows, were there any?) of those heydays of Youthful, maybe Wanton even (hey, not wantan, dont think Makan-Makan only, brudder dan sidar!) and Drifting Idealism, I dedicate this following song to those who sacrificed their resources and time, nay, even some wounded and battered, hungry, bodies, for The Truth. Lies, damned lies, and statistics, indeed:


From the musical "the
Fantasticks"


Try to remember the kind of September
When life was slow and oh so mellow
Try to remember the kind of September
When grass was green and grain so yellow
Try to remember the kind of September
When you were a young and a callow fellow
Try to remember and if you remember
Then follow--follow, oh-oh

Try to remember when life was so tender
That no one wept except the willow
Try to remember when life was so tender
That dreams were kept beside your pillow
Try to remember when life was so tender
That love was an ember about to billow
Try to remember and if you remember
Then follow--follow, oh-oh

Deep in December it's nice to remember
Although you know the snow will follow
Deep in december it's nice to remember
Without a hurt, the heart is hollow
Deep in december it's nice to remember
The fire of september that made you mellow
Deep in december our hearts should remember
Then follow--follow, oh-oh

Follow, oh-oh

IN closingDesiderata does not kNOw whether to cry or laugh today. I guess September mornings are too precious for me in shedding tears for these politicians and their Damned Lies and Statitics, so I'll remember mGf in the plural. Greetings to ALL myGOoDfRiends out here numbering more than ten -- hence after counting on my fingers (including two Golden Index!), I'm now counting the toes on my two feet. Wonder if I'll reach Twenty. Yes, I'm just SweetSeventen. No, I'm not fe-mail. I'm just Me-and I-and-Another, SweetSeptember. OR maybe that SS is You?

To help thee Laugh a Li'l, go back to that CHALLENGE 4 -- I've added some more CLUES&Hints in COMMENTS. SeYa after my non-CON BF!