***MU postmortem -- 2 +1Contrasts4Balance eh!

From the malaysia-today.net:

Reprising from an MSM -- so it's BN-leaning, what do you expect. Pennies from heaven, anywan?

A sign that people are beginning to warm up to PM
Posted by admin
Wednesday, 15 July 2009 11:27
By Zubaidah Abu Bakar (NST)

PAS' narrow win and severely-reduced majority in yesterday's by-election in Manik Urai signal one thing -- that it is losing its grip in a state it has been governing for the past 19 years.

That, and the fact that Umno has made significant inroads in Kelantan.

Sure, voters like Che Jalal Muda, who has been casting his vote in Sungai Peria in the past three elections, could not help Barisan Nasional candidate Tuan Aziz Tuan Mat win.

But his vote counted in drastically reducing the majority obtained by Pas -- the incumbent. Its candidate, Mohd Fauzi Abdullah, won by only 65 votes.

In the general election last year, the late Ismail Yaacob of Pas defeated BN's Zulkifli Omar with a 1,352 vote-majority.

In a democratic electoral system, a win is still a win, no matter how small the margin is.

Umno will have to live with that until the next election.

But, Pas cannot pretend that it is a victory that it can be proud of. Manik Urai was considered a Pas stronghold for more than two decades.

Pas can no longer thump its chest now that it has lost five of the nine polling stations.

It does seem like the frequent appearance of Pas spiritual leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, who has been menteri besar from 1990, in the constituency, appears to no longer have an overwhelming impact as before.

For Umno, it is a defeat. But by any measure, it is a moral victory.

It is a positive signal, given that the BN has lost all past by-elections in the peninsula since the coalition's dismal performance -- its worst -- in the 2008 general election.

One thing is certain: Umno must have done something right to be able to reduce the majority in the Pas fortress.

The BN surpassed Pas in youth votes by 61 votes. Still, it is not a clear sign that young Malays are returning to Umno's fold.

Umno's hard work has clearly paid off.

Credit has to be given to Kelantan Umno chief Datuk Mustapa Mohamed who traversed several hundreds of kilometres of the small constituency after the seat fell vacant following Ismail's death.

The decision by the Umno headquarters to have a central command centre, where activities were monitored, could have greatly contributed to Umno's performance.

Another factor is the exceptionally very high voter turnout -- 87.33 per cent, with a total of 10,736 of the 12,293 eligible voters casting their votes.

Pas has now to examine the outcome. Its leaders need to seek answers as the narrow win came as a complete surprise.

Pas was banking on its outstation voters but their contribution failed even to maintain last election's majority.

This, despite a hundred more of its supporters returning to vote compared with the 1,200 voters in 2008.

Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, of Universiti Sains Malaysia, thinks the young voters who returned to vote could be the factor that caused a reduction in support for Pas.

"They might want to see change and could also be fed up with the conflicts in Pas," he says.

The fact that Pas claimed it won by a 2,000 majority an hour before polling ended just showed how confident the party was.

"Its a combination of many factors; the major thing is that Nik Aziz is no longer the decisive factor in Kelantan," says Professor Mohammed Mustaffa Ishak of Universiti Utara Malaysia.

He feels that Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, Mustapa and Umno information chief Ahmad Maslan deserve a pat on the back.

Professor James Chin, of Monash University Malaysia, says voters are annoyed with the infighting in Pas.

"Some wanted the bridge that they had been waiting since the 1980s," he remarked.

To say Umno's failure to wrest the seat from Pas is a rejection of Datuk Seri Najib Razak is flawed.

It's more a sign that people are beginning to warm up to the prime minister.

Umno's ability to regain support in a Pas stronghold may have probably found the prime minister his winning formula in future elections.

Its just a beginning of a much bigger battle -- to win the hearts and minds of the urban and more sophisticated voters.

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Also from an UMNO kaki,but at least he's writing as a Blogger named Sakmongol... trying hard to be "balanced"? -- Desi, fellow BUMmer

Thursday, 16 July 2009
Manek Urai- One Swallow does not make a summer..

One Swallow at Manek Urai?




But 191 will make a swarm. 191 UMNO divisions that is. If they carry out radical reforms on leadership, work ethics and a new vision.


The last thing to do is to treat the UMNO resurgence as a definitive turning point when it was actually flash in the pan. I am referring of course to the near miss by UMNO in winning Manek Urai.


I have written that the recent good showing may be indicative of an UMNO on the rebound. It proved that UMNO's rebound must be preceded and underlined by some necessary factors. These included a re-focused and united leadership, diligent ground troops and a re-branding of UMNO. So long as UMNO indicates that it is adopting these factors, the people's confidence will be there.


UMNO's future and longevity will depend on a leadership serious with the intent of remoulding UMNO's ethos. This brief reprieve is no excuse to slouch on changes that must be taken. For example, will the UMNO president continue with the intention to scrap the quota requirement and allow open contest for top leadership? Will the UMNO leadership implement direct selection of UMNO leadership by delegates at divisional meetings? These moves underscore the need to infuse UMNO with dynamic leadership and free UMNO from being strangulated by elitism.


UMNO's longevity needs quality leadership, the infusion of new talent, good work ethics. This brief interlude at Manek Urai, points to the POSSIBILITY of a continued UMNO revival. It has yet to be actualised and can only be achieved given good leadership. Good leadership that requires good men, dedication and visionary ideas. UMNO slackens to its peril.


Here is the danger- it may throw UMNO into complacency believing things are back to normal. Things aren't. There must be something that UMNO people have done up to the by elections that must served as object lessons.


But what if the UMNO's much touted improvement was achieved on overextended application of resources? Quite apart from the endogenous factors we spoke of above, what if UMNO's comeback was actually the result of explicit horse trading, pork barrel politics, outright buying of votes, intimidation and even fraudulent practices? What if UMNO's touted turning point was achieved on the back of duplicitous machinations? Simply put, they neutralise all the above factors.


One swallow does not make a summer. The fact was- UMNO still lost. This near miss at Manek Urai will no doubt serve as a jolt to PAS and they will redouble their efforts to correct their mistakes. What UMNO wants to do is our prime concern. What took place in Manek Urai must never be treated as a generalisation. Can UMNO duplicate the same intensity and application over the whole country as it did in Manek Urai?


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DESIDERATA: I urge you be patient eh! ... I spied another item which is interesting but when I went back to that pasture,it went into hyding. Must find that guy -- is he taking a break doing it wit' Molly Flanders among the hay? -- Desi, knottyaSsusual...

Ah, sighted at lust, a GOoD INSIGHT!:):):)

FROM: http://wandering-troubadour.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, 14 July 2009
the other side of the story

Armchair warriors that wrote comments on Manik Urai by-election sitting comfortably from their study rooms based on information that they skimmed through the internet at best hit the outer ring of the target if not missed hitting the board at all! It is interesting to note that many did simply just that. Write from afar basing opinions on those that make a living on writing news.

I was there smack in the middle of the war, espionages and counter-strikes. BN has never been dirtier.

The amount of money that changed hands with voters was simply unbelievably high that almost every household can have a one month holiday to savour their fortune. Only the Almighty knows the extent of their guilt and no mortal soul can claim that what they did was immoral as nobody knows who votes for whom, at least for most of us that is.

It is amazing what money can buy. Maybe RM50 per voter did not work anymore but RM500 hooked even the very hearts that loathe corruption. They reason in their heads that it was a gift and hence free from any sin whatsoever associated with it. It was a meagre sum to the haves but a windfall to the haves not. For a household with three voters, they took home a month’s equivalent of a wage.

But in a climate of distrust alternative plans were laid in abundance. Coming from multiple sources, voters were spoilt for bounties. Some walked away with three sets of gifts each giving a person’s take-home present of RM1500. All one had to do was to wait for the go-between to approach him or her. It was a case of supply outstripping demand.

Keeping people (read voters) at poverty level and on the brink of starvation almost always pays in the end. They can easily be bought. After all it is not often such a by-election comes their way. Opportunity comes-a-knocking, it is a gift from above.

RM500 per voter was at most RM5Million. Considering three sources each armed with RM10Million, a total of RM30Million were spent with RM15Million went directly to voters and the rest as usual fall off the gravy trains into the hands of local warlords.

The majority of the people were veiled by beauty of dough and sweet smell of the ringgit and simply cast aside wafer thin belief in favour of worldly reward. Greed and selfishness are traits of human beings that will inevitably surface when income is scarce and food is hard to come by. BN knows this very well since their very existence and struggle is about nothing but money.

Analysts are coming out with a host of reasons for PAS’s dismal performance or BN’s success in gaining more territories. Some attributed BN’s “success” to Najib’s 11 points reward to people for allowing him to remain up to 100 days in power and also his “contributions” to economic excitement. I want to simply say “Bollocks”. This is what the BN think tank would like us the public to believe but if they themselves believe the spin as well, it spells disaster for them comes the 13th general election. We wait patiently for the day to arrive!

PAS and PR as a whole must not buy the argument that BN is gaining ground as a whole but opposition cannot simply brush it aside. BN has the “Money” part or access to it with little effort. But in the long run, tycoons’ and “taipans’” patience are running thin and coffers are running dry. If the economy that is very much in need of tending to is left to roam in the wilderness; comes 13th GE, BN rats will scuttle to hide in their holes.

The best part of this whole episode is that BN still lost despite all these brilliant manoeuvrings. Chinese people say luck is not on BN side. The British may call it lady luck chooses an opposing side. But Muslims say that it is an intervention from above, divine and oft-punishing.

BN simply cannot afford to continue this method in a general election or even a state election. Perak will prove to be a situation best kept as it is. By not seeking a fresh mandate BN can sit pretty at least for a little while until the 13th general election. It will bring little harm but it will not remove the bigger problem of impending defeat. A defeat it will be albeit a delayed one.

BN desperately needs a reverse of fortune. It is however proven to be very elusive. When BN refuses to accept that their way is the wrong way, their struggle is not a genuine struggle and that the people can no longer be hoodwinked; what choice do they have but to go back to the old drawing board. Again they have to lay another plan. They plan and Allah also plans; and He is the Best of Planner!
Posted by troubadour at 21:24 10 comments