My Anthem

Friday, December 12, 2014

Malaysians would get a double whammy when world oil price falls further!

When world oil prices rose from around USD70 per barrel to above USD100, the Malaysian government raised pump prices by 20 or 30sen per litre, CITING HIGHER SUBSIDIES. The world price hit a high of USD145per barrel and so we Malaysians were "suckered" again and again by HIGHER pump prices. I had argued then that Malaysians should "enjoy" the benefits of a lower price at the pump when the world oil price rose every time BECAUSE MALAYSI A PRODUCES MORE OIL, and THE PRICE OF OUR SWEET CRUDES ARE SOLD AT A PREMIUM OVER THE PRICE OF IMPORTED OIL.

We enjoyed a 4sen decrease in pump rpices recently, BUT THE GOVERNMENT RAISED PRICES BY20SEN OR 30SEN for several occasions over the past few years.

The government thinks it can fool the people ALL THE TIME?

Read the following news report today:

Oil closes below $60, 1st time since July 2009

A late session dip pushes oil below $60 for the first time since July 2009

The price of oil fell below $60 for the first time since July 2009 on Thursday and ended trading in New York at $59.95.
Benchmark U.S. crude oil dropped 99 cents, or 1.6 percent. Oil has fallen steadily for nearly six months, and is down 44 percent since reaching a high for the year of $107.26 in late June.
"We don't see a price bottom," wrote energy analyst Jim Ritterbusch in a note to investors. He expects oil to fall further, toward $55 a barrel, in the short term.
The drop is a result of rising global oil production, especially in the U.S., at a time when demand has weakened because of slowing economies in Asia and Europe.
OPEC said this week that higher production from non-OPEC members and global economic growth will reduce demand for its oil to 28.9 million barrels a day next year. That's the lowest level in more than a decade, and far less than the 30 million barrels per day that the group says it plans to produce next year.
The price collapse has pushed down prices for gasoline, diesel and other fuels, lowering expenses for drivers, shippers and airlines and giving a boost to consumer-driven economies like that of the U.S.
The average price of gasoline in the U.S. fell to $2.61 a gallon Thursday, according to AAA. That's 64 cents below last year at this time, saving U.S. drivers $7 billion a month. The Energy Department predicted this week that lower gasoline prices next year will save a typical U.S. household $550 over the course of the year.
Lower crude prices have sent the share prices of oil companies and drilling services companies spiraling lower, though, and caused many to cut back drilling projects.
As a result, the Energy Department this week trimmed its forecast for oil production growth in the U.S. for next year, though it still expects a sizeable increase. BP announced a $1 billion restructuring plan this week that analysts said could result in the elimination of thousands of jobs.
The lower prices are also pressuring government budgets in oil-producing U.S. states and cash-hungry oil exporters such as Iraq, Iran, Russia and Venezuela.


So now WHAT happens?

Hey, our national oil corporation will now report a fall in revenues and profitsd; so my prediction is the government will use the argument that SINCE OIL REVENUE CONTRIBUTION FROM PETRONAS TO THE NATIONAL COFFERS WILL "FALL" NEXT YEAR (2015), the pump prices will see a rise to compensate for the government's decrease in revenue from Petronas.

EITHER WAY, THE RAKYAT WILL PAY as the subsidies argument will be ngated by the nett decrease in Petronas' contribution to government coffers. So don't celebration the 4-sen decrease in oil price at the pump.

We the Rakyat should have been GIFTED ower prices when the world oil prices rose to dizzyting heights nearing USD150per barrel, FOR WE ARE A NETT OIL PRODUCER-cum-EXPORTER.
No, the government would compare our oil pump prices with those in OTHER "Non-oil Producing" countries.

Desi asks my ER to be patient while I temporarily take leave and later retrieve relevant arguments form my OLDER posts, cun? "ENJOY" thy lunch break, OK! Tapau fishhead curry for me, can?:)


MEANWHILE, fellow blogger at has this write:

Friday, December 12, 2014

Brace ourselves for some belt-tightening this coming new year

We are in for some difficult times ahead, even before the implementation of GST. As an oil producing country, we are affected by the drastic drop in oil prices. Though we might be able to get some benefits out of it, but we have yet to see it translated into lower fuel prices. The government will face lower revenues from Petronas but has to maintain salaries and bonuses as well as hand-outs like BR1M.

I have just read an article which revealed that some top oil and gas related companies listed on Bursa Saham Malaysia had their market capitalizations reduced by Rm33 billions when compared with their prices as at July 1, 2014.

We, the public, are definitely going to be affected adversely from this drastic drop in share prices, in one way or other. If even Petronas has to cut capex or other related expenditures by 20%, it would affect those relying on the company for their business revenues. They in turn, would reduce their spendings and affect lesser companies who rely on them for business. Employees of such companies would face no salary increases, bonuses, or even the sack! The effects would eventually be felt by the people, in terms of purchases of houses, cars or even going out to fancy restaurants or entertainment centres.

To the super rich, who each owns and controls such companies, their personal wealth would have been reduced (at least on paper) by hundreds of millions, if not billions. To put in perspective, a super rich could have sold off all his shares on July 1, put all his money in the bank and now buy back at less than half or even one third of what he sold for. Just imagine what he could have done with the profits made! But the reality is that he cannot do that, unless he was already prepared to lose control of his companies. But even the effect of just selling some shares could mean making enough to buy extra properties and luxury cars.

To ordinary mortals like us, most of us would have kept some shares and see them losing values, day after day until they are worth probably half of what they used to. For those who kept all their money in the share market, it could have been worse because each time he needs money, he has to sell shares at a loss... reluctantly but with no choice. It might be a good time to switch from not-so-good counters to really good ones, but the feeling of realising book losses to do that can have the effect of 'seller's remorse' - a term I have just learned from watching Pickers!

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