Ominous signals from Galas and Batu Sapi...

And Pakatan Rakyat components, especially PKR, must not let their guards down. They must wake up to the fact there are ceryain parties -- from within and from outside of Parti Keadilan Rakyat -- who are working hand-in-glove to checkmate the "momentum for change" that the electorate embraced decisively on March 8,2008.

PAS lost Galas by a majority of 1,000-plus votes (swing from 600-plus win in GE12), while PKR was convincingly crushed by 6,000-plus votes (although spoiler Yong Teck Lee took away a minorblock of votes, but the significant fact is that PKR's Ansari Abdullah's plus Yong's votes were still less than BN's Linda Tsen's. Linda received 9,773 votes versus PKR Ansari's 3,414 and SAPP's 2,031. Her majority at 6,359 votes is obtained by subtracting Ansari's 3,414 votes. It does not take into account Yong's 2031, but still, it is a Hurcyulean task for PR when there is a THREE-- as in Batu Sapi -- or more-cornered fight, as an Opposition divided vote bank would always favour the BN,sorry for stating the obvious!

OMINOUS SIGNALS

The first ominous sign is to be read from Galas' defeat of PAS in a state controlled by the Islamist party.

The majority of 1,190 votes won by the BN candidate marks a substantive erosion of support for PAS in a state that is a traditionally strongold of the Islamist party. BN candidate Abdul Aziz Yusoff garnered 5,324 votes in a straight-fight against Pas' Dr Zulkefli Mohamad, who obtained 4,134 votes.

Pre-election forecasts mostly believe taht Menteri Besar Nik Aziz's reputation and his tremendous sway even among the non-Muslims, would swing this by-election in the incumbent party's direction. The reality proved otherwise, andmy reading is that Nik Aziz's influence was easily counter-weighted by veteran and respected MP for Gua Musang Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. What I can also conclude from this outing is that the former Finance Minister's personal following alone was the factor that swung the victory to the Barisan Nasional away from PAS.

What this portends for the PR, especially for PAS in Kelantan, as well as in Kedah whichit also holds control at the State level, must never take for granted that cometh GE13, its supporters, mainly Muslim Malays plus non-Muslims who are won over by the progressive leaders in PAS, will continue to remain faithful to the Movement for Change.

More ominous signal is from Batu Sapi

What this writer is postulating here is that when the 13th General Elections come around -- as early as mid-2011 -- there will be more THREE- and FOUR- or MORE cornered contests, especially when certain parties are already flagging the emergence of a "THIRD FORCE"! Yong of SAPP has proven the sapping of PR's strength; hopefully such individual spoilers are not being paid by the Barisan Nasional to spoil the fight for PR who would prefer a straigh fight. The electorate in general also holds high hopes after March 8, 2008 that there is a trend towards a two=party system.

BUT, remember my friends, spoilers hungry for "Vitamin M" will always emerge to spoil the Tea Party! Is there a whisper of "Beware the Ides of March!" from certain quarters?

To be continued while Desi goes for T-break, OK?!