Anwar’s final appeal: jail or free
man?
By Kim Quek
25.10.2014
Few would doubt
that the outcome of the final appeal of Anwar Ibrahim on Oct 28 & 29 against
his sodomy conviction will be decided by politics, not by law.
More
specifically, the court’s verdict will likely be determined by Umno’s political
considerations on the impact of such final judgment.
Two main
factors will decide Anwar’s fate. The
first is Umno’s answer to this question: Will the jailing of Anwar be a net
gain for Umno’s political survival? The second is the outcome of the
competitive influence on the judiciary between Prime Minister Najib Razak and
the conservative faction led by former premier Mahathir Mohamad.
Imprisoning Anwar will
save Umno?
Will Umno be
safe after Anwar is put away to prison?
It is the popular
believe that once Anwar is jailed, the alliance of Pakatan Rakyat will
disintegrate. Many in Umno think that without the cementing factor of Anwar,
DAP and PAS will part company due to their ideological differences over mainly
religious issues.
Such common
notion is strengthened by the errant conduct of PAS in the recent Selangor
crisis.
However, a
closer look into that event will reveal that the trouble created by PAS was
mainly caused by PAS President Hadi Awang and the conservative ulama, who seemed
bent to go on a loggerhead against PKR and DAP in the choice of MB for
Selangor, despite being opposed by the party’s progressive and pro-Pakatan
faction. Though Hadi had managed to overrule the progressives in that episode,
the latter were clearly in the majority in the central committee which is the
party’s highest body for political decision making and implementation.
It is plain to
all that Hadi’s extremist and reactionary stance on religion and politics,
which has alienated both PKR and DAP and rejected by all non-Muslims and the moderate
Muslims, is sheer political suicide for his party. Unless Hadi changes his stance or is removed
from power, PAS will be heading for obliteration in coming elections.
For this
reason, I think even the conservatives will realise this unpalatable reality,
given time and persuasion to chew over the fatal consequences of so decisively alienating
such large and important sectors of the electorate; and the progressives who
fervently believe and support the common cause of good governance and social justice
of Pakatan Rakyat will surely prevail in the current power tussle and gain
clear power by the next party election the
latest.
When that
happens, PAS will emerge stronger, so will Pakatan Rakyat, considering the
excellent rapport existing between PAS’s progressive leaders and their
counterparts in PKR and DAP.
The torch of Reformasi will be passed on
Anwar’s
departure to prison will not leave a vacuum, as the Reformasi ideals are already firmly implanted into the leadership
of all the component parties of Pakatan Rakyat. Neither would Anwar’s PKR party
suffer a leadership deficit, as its youthful leaders are already groomed to
carry on the torch of reforms without Anwar’s physical presence. If there is
any difference, Anwar in prison will only inspire and strengthen their
political conviction that, come what may, they must save the country from the seemingly
unending crutches of an evil regime.
To those
Umno hardliners gleefully looking forward to what they think is the political
annihilation of Anwar, I advise them to take a trip down memory lane.
The last
time Anwar was jailed on such sodomy charge in 1998, it caused such a
torrential backlash that Umno, for the only time in history, lost the support
of the majority of Malays. And Barisan
Nasional (BN) would have been defeated in that 1999 elections, if not for the
massive and unprecedented swing of Chinese support to BN. That swing was a
result of BN’s campaign of deception through a blitzkrieg on street violence
against Chinese in Jakarta in the aftermath of the toppling of dictator Suharto,
Mahathir’s constant warning of a May 13 style racial riot and the concocted imminence
of an Islamic state under PAS.
Fifteen
years on, the political scenario has much changed. The sound and fury of the Malay masses that
greeted the previous sodomy trial of Anwar is no more found in the current
trial. But, equally if not more
important, is the virtual permanent alienation of Chinese electoral support for
BN.
Taking the 2013
election as benchmark, where Pakatan’s 52% share of the popular votes is
estimated to comprise 40% of Malays and 75% - 80% Chinese, and there were
dozens of seats lost to BN on thin margins, BN can ill afford to lose even a
small swath of Malay votes, keeping in mind that the massive swing of Chinese
support to Pakatan in the last two general elections in 2013 and 2008 is
virtually irreversible.
Is Umno so
sure that the second-time jailing of Anwar on sodomy will not incur a backlash
among Malays, though understandably less sweeping than the previous occasion?
The rapid
advance of the social media has made our people much better informed now. If
Umno couldn’t hide the injustice against Anwar fifteen years ago, it is even
less able to do the same this time. Take
it that the majority know what is going on, and it is certainly not to the
credit of Najib’s leadership and government to so savagely maul Anwar yet again,
with a trial which is manifestly void of merits in fact and in law.
Keeping
silent does not mean ignorance or approval. Beneath the calm on the surface, hazardous
undercurrents could be running that may cause fatal consequences to the
perpetrators of such injustice.
Umno is
hence advised to look before it leaps.
Mahathir vs Najib
The other
main factor that may impact the court verdict is the current power tussle
between Najib and Mahathir.
For
Mahathir, it is a relatively simple decision.
Eliminate what is to him Umno’s enemy No1 would safeguard Umno’s
hegemony, as well as dodging the day of reckoning for him personally if Anwar
were to become the prime minister. Besides, with Anwar removed from the scene, Mahathir
would feel free to unleash his fury to unseat Najib without the worry of the
dreaded Anwar to take advantage of Umno’s open rift.
However,
Najib may have quite a different view.
Knowing that Mahathir sees Anwar as his most-feared enemy, the continued
presence of Anwar in the political arena may serve as a counterweight to
Mahathir’s reactionary influence to restrain him from all-out attacks against
Najib’s premiership.
Another
important consideration for Najib is his concern for his international image.
For years, he has been painstakingly cultivating his image as a moderate leader
in the international stage (at great costs to the public of course) and even
launched his pet Global Movement of Moderates to buttress such credentials.
Now, what
will the world make of Najib, if an internationally respected leader like Anwar
is sent to prison in a notorious trial that has already been universally
condemned as a great travesty of justice, transgression of human rights and
democracy? Where would Najib and his
wife Rosmah (more so the latter) hide their faces at distinguished
international gatherings during their frequent overseas trips?
Hence, it is
not entirely impossible that Najib would prefer to see Anwar freed, or perhaps,
as a compromise to Umno’s hardliners, penalised with a fine that would bar him
from election or appointment to party post for many years to come.
To sum up,
Anwar’s fate at his final appeal hinges on the outcome of cross currents of
Umno’s party interests and conflicting personal interests of feuding leaders.
Will court rule
according to law?
Perhaps at
this point, questions may be asked about our judges, whether they may exercise
their judicial judgment strictly according to law and constitution, free of
political influences.
This is
unlikely to happen, as the record of recent years has shown that the Federal
Court has ruled in favour of the powers that be in every case where vital
interest of the latter is at stake, irrespective
of whether the judgment is in conformity with the constitution and law. Such pattern of judgment was most glaringly
demonstrated in the series of Federal Court decisions where the constitution
was thrown to the wind to ensure BN succeeded in it’s power grab in Perak.
Having said
that, miracles do happen. Who knows the
majority of judges may at the end decide to allow their judicial conscience to
overrule their personal political loyalty or political biddings of others.
Kim Quek
Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/kimquek.0?ref=hl
*******************************************
aMORE from Sdr Kim Quek, belatedly...
Suspend sodomy hearing while Shafee
is under probe
By Kim Quek
19.10.2014
The
revelation of an on-going criminal investigation on lead prosecutor in the
Anwar sodomy trial, Shafee Abdullah, has
cast serious doubt not only on the impending hearing of Anwar Ibrahim’s appeal
against his sodomy conviction at the Federal Court on Oct 28, but also on the
legal validity of Anwar’s earlier conviction by the Court of Appeal on Mar 7.
Malaysian
Insider in an article on Oct 18 reported that the Attorney General’s Chambers
issued an order as early as 3 Jan 2014 to investigate Shafee for having possibly
made false affidavit in response to Anwar Ibrahim’s application to disqualify
him, and that such investigation is still on-going.
The accusation against Shafee was made by
former Kuala Lumpur CID chief Mat Zain Abdullah who claimed in his statutory
declaration that some of the contents of Shafee’s affidavits were false.
Mat Zain
also told Malaysian Insider that he only knew of AG’s Jan 3 order to
investigate Shafee, when the police approached him to record his statement on
May 19.
This means
that all this time, a criminal suspect under criminal investigation has led a
prosecution team that resulted in Anwar’s conviction at the Court of Appeal,
and he will continue to prosecute in the coming appeal hearing in the Federal
Court.
These
disturbing events call for urgent answers to the following questions:
1.
Why
has Attorney General Gani Patail allowed Shafie to continue to act as prosecutor,
when the latter is under criminal investigation for allegedly making false
affidavit in order to stay on as prosecutor?
2.
Why
didn’t AG Gani inform the Court of Appeal of such on-going investigation
against prosecutor Shafee before and during the hearing that led to Anwar’s conviction
on Mar 7?
3.
What
is the legal implication to Anwar’s conviction on Mar 7, if Shafie is later
found to be guilty of making false affidavit?
Would that not render the conviction of Anwar on Mar 7 null and void,
since it is done by an unqualified prosecutor whose integrity has proven to be defective?
4.
Why
did
the police only begin to take statement from Mat Zain Ibrahim on May
19, well
after Anwar’s conviction on Mar 7, and well after the order to
investigate on
Jan 3; and why is the investigation still not completed? Is it not
reasonable to assume that the delay
is deliberate so as not to delay and jeopardise Anwar’s conviction on
Mar 7 at the Court of Appeal and at the on-coming Federal Court hearing,
since there is no
conceivable reason for such inordinate delays?
The entire
episode has given ground for strong suspicion of malicious intent on the part
of the prosecution in the current sodomy trial of Anwar, and needless to say, the integrity of both AG Gani and lead
prosecutor Shafie is now called into serious question.
To
avert
further injustice to Anwar, Prime Minister Najib Razak must now order
for an immediate and independent inquiry on both Gani and Shafee for
possible criminal
misconduct.
Meanwhile,
hearing at the Federal Court must be held in abeyance, pending the conclusion
of these investigations.
Kim Quek
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/kimquek.0?ref=hl
Mkini
He is also expected to hold a rally the same night at the MPSJ stadium in Subang Jaya.
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